Low-lying Pacific islands pin hopes on UN meeting as sea rise threatens survival | Climate crisis

The Pacific country of Kiribati might be surrounded by water, but on land its population is running dry. The ocean around them is steadily encroaching, contaminating underground wells and leeching salt into the soil.

“Our waters have been infected,” climate activist and law student Christine Tekanene says. “Those who are affected, they now can’t survive with the water that changed after sea level rise.”

The freshwater crisis is just one of the many threats driven by rising seas in Kiribati. Its people live on a series of atolls, peaking barely a couple of metres above a sprawling tract of the Pacific Ocean. As global temperatures rise and ice sheets melt, Kiribati – and other low-lying nations like it – are experiencing extreme and regular flooding, frequent coastal erosion and persistent food and water insecurity.

This week the United Nations general assembly will hold a high-level meeting to address the existential threats posed by sea level rise as the issue climbs the international agenda; last year the UN security council debated it for the first time.

Wednesday’s meeting aims to build political consensus on action to address the widespread social, economic and legal consequences of rising seas.

Samoa’s UN representative, Fatumanava Dr Pa’olelei Luteru, says the upcoming UN meeting is long overdue and “extremely important” for island nations.

“Economically, militarily, we’re not powerful,” says Luteru, who also serves as the current chair of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). “At least within the context of the UN and the multilateral system we have the possibility and the opportunity to engage and achieve some of the things that are a priority for us.”

‘We’re still fighting’

Sea level rise presents a range of contentious issues, not least of which is whether low-lying nations and their governments should begin preparations to relocate their populations. While some countries, like Tuvalu, have accepted this possibility and are lobbying for international recognition of their sovereignty even if their islands disappear, others seem more cautious. A decade ago, Kiribati bought land in Fiji as a potential refuge for its citizens, but the government has since reconsidered that strategy.

Manono, Nu’ulopa and Upolu islands in Samoa.
Photograph: Atmotu Images/Alamy

Ambassador Luteru says many small island states are unwilling to concede their futures, and “have not used the word ‘existential’” when referring to the threat of climate change on their statehoods.

“There’s a clear expression from people that they do not want to move,” he says.

Meanwhile, Tekanene says many Pacific Islanders feel “offended” when asked about their lands disappearing. “We’re still fighting, we’re not drowning,” she says.

Some experts argue, however, that world leaders must urgently face the reality of disappearing homelands for millions living on small islands and coastal areas.

Dr Benjamin Strauss, CEO and chief scientist at Climate Central, warns that while the worst impacts of sea level rise can be delayed, they cannot be undone.

“The long term sea level rise that we’ve already locked in is almost certain to drown a great number of Pacific atolls,” he says. “In the end, there are speeds and amounts of sea level rise that will make it impossible to stay on many islands.”

Kamal Amakrane from the Global Centre for Climate Mobility, who has been helping the UN general assembly prepare for the high-level meeting, stresses that while people have “the right to remain” in their homelands, it’s equally important to ensure safe and dignified options for those who are forced to relocate.

“The international community and regional institutions should enable climate mobility pathways,” Amakrane told the Guardian via email.

Both creating these migration pathways, and developing solutions to protect islands so people can stay, will require major financing from wealthier nations. Kiribati is seeking billions of dollars from foreign donors to raise its islands and escape the worst harms of rising seas. Strauss says it would take “some sort of massively heroic, unimaginable kind of geoengineering” to ensure island nations can withstand the impacts of sea level rise.

“A lot of the atoll nations don’t have a great deal of resources,” Strauss says. “So it’s not clear how much they would be able to invest and how much the world would decide to invest.”

map of kiribati

For Kiribati, the situation is expected to get much worse. A recent Nasa assessment found the country will see sea levels rise up to 50 centimetres by 2050 whether or not global emissions are cut before then. If worst-case predictions come true, some of its islands will be uninhabitable, if not completely lost, by the end of the century.

Faced with such a looming catastrophe, activists like Tekanene are urging world leaders to do more to protect their country.

“We want to ensure that developed nations take responsibility for the historical emissions contributing to this crisis,” she says.

“They can help prevent it … they can do it more than us.”

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Texas jury clears ‘Trump Train’ for surrounding 2020 Biden-Harris bus | Texas

A federal jury in Texas on Monday cleared a group of Donald Trump’s supporters and found one driver liable in a civil trial over a so-called “Trump Train” that surrounded a Biden-Harris campaign bus on a busy highway days before the 2020 election.

The two-week trial in a federal courthouse in Austin centered on whether the actions of the “Trump Train” participants amounted to political intimidation. Among those onboard the bus was Wendy Davis, the former Democratic lawmaker, who testified she feared for her life while a convoy of Trump supporters boxed in the bus along Interstate 35.

The jury awarded $10,000 to the bus driver.

Plaintiffs in the lawsuit had alleged they were terrorised and intimidated for more than 90 minutes on 20 October 2020, as they took a bus tour canvassing for the Democratic ticket in the final days of the election in Texas as they travelled from San Antonio to Austin.

About 40 vehicles flying Make America Great Again flags encircled the bus, trying to run it off the road and playing what the suit claims was a “madcap game of highway ‘chicken’”.

No criminal charges were filed against the six Trump supporters who were sued by Davis and two others onboard the bus. Civil rights advocates hoped a guilty verdict would send a clear message about what constitutes political violence and intimidation.

Video that Davis recorded from the bus shows pickup trucks with large Trump flags slowing down to box in the bus as it tried to move away from the group of Trump supporters. One of the defendants hit a campaign volunteer’s car while the trucks occupied all lanes of traffic, forcing the bus and everyone around it to a 15mph crawl.

The event was canceled after Davis and others on the bus – a campaign staffer and the driver – made repeated calls to 911 asking for a police escort through San Marcos and no help arrived.

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Davis, who is best known for the 11-hour speech she made in the Texas senate in 2013 to filibuster an anti-abortion bill, said she suffered “substantial emotional distress” form the experience.

Associated press contributed to this report

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Democrats worried about polls undercounting Donald Trump’s support | US elections 2024

Democrats are increasingly worried that pollsters are undercounting Donald Trump’s voter support, rating his prospects of winning November’s presidential election as much higher than headline opinion polling figures suggest.

While most national surveys show consistent, though moderate, leads for Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, some supporters are unnerved by the small margin of her advantage in three northern battlegrounds – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – which are deemed must-wins in her quest for the White House.

Although some polls have shown the vice-president with leads of between four and six points in Pennsylvania – generally judged the most important swing state – others show Trump trailing by smaller deficits. Narrower gaps separate the two in Michigan and Wisconsin, where Harris’s lead is just 1 or 2%, according to several different recent polls.

Underpinning Democrats’ fears is the knowledge that Trump greatly out-performed predictions in all three states in 2016, when he narrowly won them en route to his election triumph over Hillary Clinton, and in 2020, when he was pipped by Joe Biden by far smaller margins than forecast.

The worries are compounded by the latest New York Times/Siena poll, which records Trump performing more robustly in three Sun belt battleground states – Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina – than he has in weeks.

The survey shows the Republican nominee leading by five points – 50 to 45% – in Arizona, which Biden won by just over 10,000 votes in 2020, and four points – 49 to 45% – in Georgia, which was won by the president by a similar margin. In North Carolina, where Trump is trying to avoid being tarred by revelations over past comments by Mark Robinson, the GOP’s candidate for governor, he has a smaller advantage, 49 to 47%.

Putting the Democrats’ worries into perspective are projections showing that Trump will win all seven designated battleground states – the seventh being Nevada – if he outstrips polling predictions by the same margins he achieved in losing the 2020 election.

A separate projection by Focaldata – using a model that takes into account different demographic factors in determining the likelihood that certain cohorts will vote – reduces Harris’s lead by an average of 2.4% across swing states.

“In an election which could be decided by just 60,000 voters in November, this margin could easily be the difference between a right and wrong call on the election winner,” writes Focaldata’s Patrick Flynn. “Pollsters who simply rely on self-reporting [in defining likely voters] may be subject to another polling miss in Trump’s favor.”

The one piece of encouraging news for Harris is that she will win every swing state except Georgia if the polls turn out to be as wrong as they were in the campaign for the 2022 congressional midterm elections.

That has not placated some Democrats, who note that both Clinton and Biden were performing better against Trump in polling – both nationally and in swing states – than Harris is now.

“That’s ominous. There’s no question that is concerning, but you’re working as hard as you can work, no matter what,” the Hill quoted one unnamed Democratic senator as saying. “My sense is there’s not a lot more you can do than we’re already doing.”

John Fetterman, the Democratic senator for Pennsylvania, told the same site that Trump was a threat despite some buoyant recent polling for Harris in his state. “Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016 … Trump is going to be tough in Pennsylvania, and that’s absolutely the truth,” he said.

In a further worrying sign for Harris, the New York Times/Siena poll indicated that her “bounce” from this month’s debate against Trump – which most surveys indicated she won – was the smallest enjoyed by any presidential debate-winning candidate in the 21st century.

“On average, Kamala Harris is faring about one point better across 34 polls that measured the race before and after the debate,” wrote the New York Times’ chief polling analyst Nate Cohn, concluding that the contest remained deadlocked despite the encounter.

“George W Bush, John Kerry, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and, yes, Donald J Trump earlier this year, all peaked with gains of at least two points after their debates.”

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A novel way to get rid of all our unwanted stuff | Recycling

Twenty-five years ago, when I lived in Barcelona, it had a brilliant scheme for getting rid of unwanted articles (Councils in England to get revised guidance on ‘middle-class fly-tipping’, 22 September). Each barrio had one night every month when you could put your stuff out on the pavement – first to be picked over by your neighbours, then by people coming back from a night out, when you invariably picked up something you didn’t want, and then the professional pickers with vans. In the early hours, the pavement would be cleared by binmen and washed by the nightly cleaners – job done.

The answer is to have only one night in each area, which is well known so people visit especially for it. Recycling is a cause for reward and celebration, not fines. And for goodness sake, leave class out of it.
Jane Swan
Delabole, Cornwall

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Earth may have breached seven of nine planetary boundaries, health check shows | Oceans

Industrial civilisation is close to breaching a seventh planetary boundary, and may already have crossed it, according to scientists who have compiled the latest report on the state of the world’s life-support systems.

“Ocean acidification is approaching a critical threshold”, particularly in higher-latitude regions, says the latest report on planetary boundaries. “The growing acidification poses an increasing threat to marine ecosystems.”

The report, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), builds on years of research showing there are nine systems and processes – the planetary boundaries – that contribute to the stability of the planet’s life-support functions.

Thresholds beyond which they can no longer properly function have already been breached in six. Climate change, the introduction of novel entities, change in biosphere integrity and modification of biogeochemical flows are judged to be in high-risk zones, while planetary boundaries are also transgressed in land system change and freshwater change but to a lesser extent. All have worsened, according to the data.

Stratospheric ozone depletion has remained stable, however, and there has been a slight improvement in atmospheric aerosol loading, the research says.

At a briefing outlining the findings, Levke Caesar, a climate physicist at PIK and co-author of the report, said there were two reasons the levels of ocean acidification were concerning.

“One is [that] the indicator for ocean acidification, which is the current aragonite separation state, while still being in the safe operating space, is approaching the threshold of transgressing the safe boundary,” Caesar said.

“The second is that there are actually several new studies that were published over the last years that indicate that even these current conditions may already be problematic for a variety of marine organisms, suggesting a need [to] re-evaluate which levels can actually be called safe.”

Ocean acidification was getting worse globally, with the effects most pronounced in the Southern Ocean and the Arctic Ocean, she added.

Ocean acidification is the phenomenon of increasing acidity (decreasing pH) in ocean water due to the absorption of atmospheric CO2. The process not only harms calcifying organisms, potentially leading to food web breakdown, but also reduces the ocean’s efficiency in acting as a vital carbon sink.

“This illustrates the connection between ocean acidification … and biosphere integrity,” Caesar said. “Indeed, one of the main messages of our report is that all nine planetary boundaries are highly interconnected.

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“This means that any human perturbation of the global environment that we observe at the moment … cannot be addressed as if they were separate issues, which is how it is at the moment primarily handled. Because this type of approach ignores that the components of the Earth system constantly interact forming a large network where changes in one area affect the others.”

Planetary boundary science was pioneered in 2009 by Johan Rockstrom, the director of the PIK, and others. In that research and two subsequent reports, the researchers identified and quantified boundaries relating to climate change, biosphere, land system change, freshwater change, biogeochemical flows, ocean acidification, atmospheric aerosol loading, ozone layer depletion and the introduction of novel entities, such as synthetic chemicals, to the environment.

The transgression of boundaries in each of those areas risks disrupting the stability, resilience and liveability of the state of the planet that has persisted for the past 12,000 years and that has allowed the rise of complex human civilisation.

The report, which came a year after the last, is the first of what will now be annual “planetary health checks” published by PIK, Rockstrom said.

“We recognise that the planet’s health … is at such risk today that we in science must also now step up and step right out in to the uncomfortable zone and say that we are now committing ourselves to produce every year a scientific measuring of the entire health assessment – a risk assessment – across all the planetary boundaries,” he said. “This is much more than science, this is science for change.”

Unlike previous iterations of PIK’s planetary boundaries research, the report does not appear in an academic journal but is instead written and formatted for a popular audience. Rockstrom and his colleagues said the findings were based on peer-reviewed science.

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I’ve spent 32 years writing about the great outdoors. We’ve both changed more than I could ever have imagined | Birdwatching

As I filed a recent Guardian Birdwatch column, about the rare Sabine’s gull that turned up unexpectedly on my local patch on the Somerset coast, I realised I have been contributing these short articles for exactly half my lifetime. When counted alongside my Weatherwatch column, this month sees my 1,000th dispatch from the great outdoors.

Coincidentally, my first Birdwatch, in January 1993, was also about gulls. It celebrated both their beauty and their ability to adapt to living alongside us, even though most people don’t appreciate them. Since then, Britain’s birdlife has changed beyond what I could have ever imagined.

When I was a fledgling birder, during the 1960s and 1970s, the number of species either gained or lost as British breeding birds was in low single figures. I recall the surprise and excitement when Cetti’s warbler and the Mediterranean gull colonised southern England, and the sense of loss we all felt when two once-common birds – red-backed shrike and wryneck – disappeared. During a brief spell of cooling in the north Atlantic, snowy owl – and a handful of other species – arrived from the north. But they stayed for just a few years, before beating a rapid retreat as climate change began to take hold.

Fledgling birder … Stephen Moss, aged eight, with a sparrow in a London park. Photograph: Courtesy Stephen Moss

Yet, as I have documented in the past decade or so, my adopted county has seen the arrival of little egrets, cattle egrets and great white egrets from continental Europe, bitterns and marsh harriers from the east, and (with a helping hand from conservationists) our tallest bird, the common crane. While these exotic new species are a welcome addition to our avifauna, many of them would not be here were it not for the milder winters brought about by the climate crisis.

My life has also changed dramatically since I first began writing for the Guardian. Then, I was living with my young family in north London, with little or no time to watch birds. Soon afterwards, following a move to west London, I stumbled across my first “local patch”, Lonsdale Road reservoir alongside the River Thames, next to the famous Boat Race course.

For the following three years I documented my sightings here in each month’s Birdwatch column, noting the changes of birdlife from season to season. During that time I received a letter from a reader who also frequented this tiny nature reserve, containing a stern admonishment. “You write about your local patch,” she wrote, “But it’s not just yours, it’s our local patch!” Suitably chastened, I duly apologised.

A Sabine’s gull, on Moss’s Somerset patch. Photograph: Nick Wilcox-Brown/The Guardian

Wherever I have lived since, I made sure I featured each new local patch in my column, contrasting with accounts of my exotic adventures to far-flung locations around the world. These were thanks to my new career as a wildlife TV producer at the BBC Natural History Unit, usually accompanied by presenter Bill Oddie.

Guardian readers vicariously joined us as we went birding at Disney World in Florida, in Trinidad and Tobago, Mallorca and Poland, and on the Icelandic island of Surtsey – a land mass younger than I was, having emerged from beneath the ocean after undersea volcanic activity in late 1963. A trip to Antarctica with Michaela Strachan for the Really Wild Show, and to the Maasai Mara for Big Cat Diary, were also highlights for me – and hopefully for you, too.

By then in my 40s, I began to delve back in time, recalling the birding adventures of my childhood. Most were on the gravel pits and reservoirs of suburbia, a place famously described by the author and broadcaster Kenneth Allsop as “the messy limbo that is neither town nor country”. But there were also visits to the Isles of Scilly, north Norfolk, and the Kentish birding hotpots of Stodmarsh and Dungeness, which we cycled to as teenagers in the days when children were given the freedom to explore alone.

All of these pieces – my first 150 columns – were collated and published by the Guardian and Aurum Press in one of my earliest books, This Birding Life. I now realise that this marked a major advance for me: having turned my hobby into my job, I was embracing the genre of “New Nature Writing” – more personal, intimate and narrative-led accounts of the natural world.

This change was triggered by a divorce, remarriage, and my move to the West Country with my new young family. For the first few years here, I wrote mainly about the birds in our large garden on the Somerset Levels. The swallows, the very first bird I saw as we arrived at our new home on a baking July day; the buzzards, so scarce when I was growing up that my mother had to drive me all the way to north Wales to see one; and the blue-crowned parakeet – an escaped bird – that appeared unexpectedly a few months after our move. I was reminded of London’s rose-ringed parakeets, those impossibly noisy and exotic newcomers which are now all over the capital, but still haven’t made it to Somerset. I miss them.

Moss in 2014 with a Regent Bowerbird in Queensland, Australia. Photograph: Courtesy Stephen Moss

As the years went by, and the children began to grow up, I explored farther afield. I now often write about the birds of my current favourite local patch on the Somerset coast, which I call the Three Rivers – the Huntspill, Parrett and Brue – and which I visit with my birding companions most weekends. The Sabine’s gull featured in this month’s 1,000th column was the 150th species I have seen there. Yet my excitement was tinged with the realisation that, during my 18 years of living in Somerset, I have witnessed the precipitous declines of so many once-common and familiar species.

It was recently announced that five species of seabird, including that extraordinary global traveller the Arctic tern, have joined the Red List of Birds of Conservation Concern. This has raised the total of UK breeding and wintering species on that list to 73 – that’s more than twice as many as on the first Red List in 1996, and representing three out of 10 of all our regularly occurring bird species. Most shockingly of all, species that even recently were common summer visitors – the swift and house martin –are now on the Red List. This is not just down to climate change, but also the decline of flying insects as a result of the biodiversity crisis.

Meanwhile, the British Ornithologists’ Union’s official list of birds recorded in Britain – including rare vagrants from around the globe – has risen since 1992 from just under 550 species to more than 630. To put this in perspective, I still have my battered copy of The Status of Birds in Britain and Ireland, published in 1971, which lists only 470 species – just three-quarters of today’s number.

This huge increase is down to the effects of the climate crisis on global weather patterns, producing more frequent and extreme weather events. These have in turn led to a higher incidence of vagrancy, such as the unprecedented landfall of North American landbirds on our western coasts, such as the magnolia and Canada warblers, both of which display much brighter and more striking plumage, combining yellows, blacks and greys, than our rather drab Old World warblers.

‘What will have happened to our weather, climate and birds by 2056?’ Photograph: Nick Wilcox-Brown/The Guardian

As well as the newly red-listed swift and house martin, familiar birds from my childhood, such as the grey partridge and turtle dove, have virtually disappeared from our rural countryside. As has that classic sign of spring: the cuckoo.

Soon after moving here, I chanced across Mick, who grew up in our village in the 1950s. “Did you used to get cuckoos here?” I asked. He responded with that look, a mix of kindness and pity, which Somerset folk give to idiots like me from “up London”. “Cuckoos …” he said. “Cuckoos? They used to drive us mad.”

I tried to imagine a time when the call of the cuckoo was an irritation rather than a wonder. And I didn’t hear one in my village for many years, until a timely visitor called twice from the bottom of our garden, on the morning of my 60th birthday, during the spring 2020 lockdown. Sadly, cuckoos have continued to decline on the Somerset Levels and this year I only heard one.

So, having clocked up my 1,000th column on weather, climate and birds, I wonder if I’ll still be writing them in another 32 years’ time, when I’m 96? I was cheered recently by the report that the doyen of Guardian columnists, the chess master Leonard Barden, is still making his weekly contribution at the age of 95, after almost 70 years at the helm.

But what will have happened to our weather, climate and birds by 2056? Looking back to 1992, it would have been hard to imagine the changes I have witnessed since then, so I’m not going to make any predictions. What I can say is that unless we halt the runaway progress of both the climate and the global biodiversity crises, then not only will the weather be unimaginably horrific, but there will be far fewer birds left to write about.

On a lighter note – and my wife, Suzanne, always tells me to end on a positive point – the younger generation is fighting much harder than we ever did to try to halt, and then reverse, the negative effects of our current calamities. Maybe they will, against all the odds, be able to return us to a time when changes in the weather were simply a topic of daily small talk, and common species of bird were just that – common.

Stephen Moss is a naturalist and author. His latest book, The Starling: A Biography, is published by Square Peg on 3 October

Stephen would like to thank his editors at the Guardian: Tim Radford, Celia Locks, Liz McCabe, Bibi van der Zee and Alan Evans

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Suspect in second Trump assassination attempt left note saying he intended to kill ex-president, prosecutors say – live | US elections 2024

Man suspected of second assassination attempt on Trump acknowledged plot – prosecutors

The man suspected of making a second attempt on Donald Trump’s life last week acknowledged that was his intention in a note discovered by police, prosecutors wrote on Monday.

“This was an assassination attempt on Donald Trump but I failed you,” Ryan Wesley Routh wrote in the note, which was included in a package he gave to an unnamed witness before his arrest.

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Here’s more on what we learned from prosecutors today about Ryan Wesley Routh’s motivations to make a suspected second attempt on Donald Trump’s life, from the Guardian’s Edward Helmore:

The man accused in the apparent assassination attempt of Donald Trump at a golf course in Florida left behind a note saying that he intended to kill the former president and maintained in his car a handwritten list of dates and venues where the Republican White House nominee was to appear, the justice department said on Monday.

The new allegations were included in a detention memo filed ahead of a hearing on Monday at which the justice department was expected to argue that 58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh should remain locked up while the case is pending.

The details are meant to buttress prosecutors’ assertions that Routh had set out to kill Trump before the plot was thwarted by a Secret Service agent who spotted a rifle poking out of shrubbery on the West Palm Beach golf course where the former president was playing on 15 September.

The note, addressed “Dear World”, was placed in a box that was dropped at the home of an unidentified person who contacted law enforcement officials after last Sunday’s arrest. It appears to have been based on the premise that the assassination attempt would ultimately be unsuccessful.

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In addition to the geolocation data tying two of his cellphones to the areas around Donald Trump’s properties, FBI agents also found in Ryan Wesley Routh’s possession a list of dates where the ex-president would be in August, September and October.

Prosecutors added that Routh had “a notebook with dozens of pages filled with names and phone numbers pertaining to Ukraine, discussions about how to join combat on behalf of Ukraine, and notes criticizing the governments of China and Russia”.

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Suspected second Trump assassin repeatedly visited area around golf course, Mar-a-Lago – prosecutors

Two cellphones found in the car Ryan Wesley Routh was driving when he was arrested were geolocated to areas near Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort and his golf course in Florida in the weeks leading up to his apparent assassination attempt, prosecutors wrote.

The phones, part of six that FBI agents found in Routh’s vehicle, made repeated visits to the vicinity of the two Trump properties between 18 August and 15 September, the court document said.

Agents also examined the SKS rifle found in the bushes outside the golf course where Trump was playing, and discovered a fingerprint they matched to Routh.

The rifle was found in the bushes outside the fence line near the sixth hole of the golf course, and prosecutors wrote that Trump was playing on the fifth hole when a Secret Service agent saw the rifle’s gun barrel protruding from the bushes, and opened fire.

In addition to the rifle, prosecutors wrote that FBI agents found a backpack and shopping bag attached to the fence that contained plates “capable of stopping small arms fire”.

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FBI agents also reviewed a book they believe Routh authored in February 2023 called Ukraine’s Unwinnable War: The Fatal Flaw of Democracy, World Abandonment and the Global Citizen-Taiwan, Afghanistan, North Korea, WWIII and the End of Humanity, according to the court document.

In the book, Routh stated that he:

Must take part of the blame for the [person] that we elected for our next president that ended up being brainless, but I am man enough to say that I misjudged and made a terrible mistake and Iran I apologize. You are free to assassinate Trump as well as me for that error in judgment and the dismantling of the deal. No one here in the US seems to have the balls to put natural selection to work or even unnatural selection.

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In a court document submitted today, prosecutors said Ryan Wesley Routh dropped off a box at a witness’s house months prior to making his attempt on Donald Trump’s life.

After learning of Routh’s arrest, the unnamed witness opened the box and contacted law enforcement. Prosecutors say the box contained “ammunition, a metal pipe, miscellaneous building materials, tools, four phones, and various letters.”

One letter was addressed to “The World” and read, in part:

This was an assassination attempt on Donald Trump but I failed you. I tried my best and gave it all the gumption I could muster. It is up to you now to finish the job; and I will offer $150,000 to whomever can complete the job.

He [the former President] ended relations with Iran like a child and now the Middle East has unraveled.

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Man suspected of second assassination attempt on Trump acknowledged plot – prosecutors

The man suspected of making a second attempt on Donald Trump’s life last week acknowledged that was his intention in a note discovered by police, prosecutors wrote on Monday.

“This was an assassination attempt on Donald Trump but I failed you,” Ryan Wesley Routh wrote in the note, which was included in a package he gave to an unnamed witness before his arrest.

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Trump leads Harris in Sun belt battleground states, poll finds

Good morning, US politics blog readers. Broadly speaking, there are two groups of swing states expected to decide the presidential election: the Great Lakes states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and the Sun belt states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. The closely watched pollsters at the New York Times and Siena College today released new data from three of the latter group, showing Donald Trump preferred by voters over Kamala Harris, albeit to varying degrees. The poll finds the vice-president’s standing is weakest against Trump in Arizona, where she now has a five-point polling deficit after the same pollsters showed her with a five-point lead last month. The race in Georgia is tighter but the tightest state is North Carolina, which has not supported a Democratic candidate for president since 2008.

The survey is the latest sign of the the presidential race remaining in toss-up territory two months after Harris took over as the Democratic candidate from Joe Biden. The Times and Siena College poll is just one data point among many others, but if its findings bear out, it would leave the vice-president reliant on the Great Lakes states as well as Nevada, the fourth Sun belt state that was not surveyed, or a single Nebraska congressional district to win the White House.

Here’s what else is happening today:

  • The government appears to have dodged the threat of another shutdown, after congressional leaders reached a spending agreement that expires on 20 December, defying Trump’s demands that they also approve legislation to require voters to prove their citizenship when registering.

  • Biden honors women’s soccer champions Gotham F.C. at 10.30am ET, then meets with president Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates at 12.20pm before heading to New York City for the UN general assembly.

  • Israel has launched a volley of airstrikes at Lebanon today, again raising fears of a regional conflict. You can read out live blog all about it here.

  • JD Vance is delivering remarks in Charlotte, North Carolina at 5pm.

  • Trump will hold a rally in Indiana, Pennsylvania at 7pm.

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Six water firms in England ‘overcharged customers by up to £1.5bn’ | Water

Six water companies overcharged customers between £800m and £1.5bn by “significantly or systematically” underreporting the true scale of their sewage pollution of rivers and waterways, a tribunal heard on Monday.

In the first environmental competition class action against water companies in England, lawyers argued that the privatised firms had abused their monopoly position to mislead regulators over the amount of sewage they were discharging from their assets over the past 10 years.

As a result the companies, Thames Water, Yorkshire Water, Anglian Water, Severn Trent, Northumbrian Water and United Utilities, were able to charge customers higher bills than they would have been allowed to if they had provided the regulators with a true picture of their sewage pollution.

Prof Carolyn Roberts, a water resource specialist, is taking the action in the competition appeals tribunal and seeking to represent millions of consumers who she believes have been overcharged by hundreds of millions of pounds.

Julian Gregory, for Roberts, told the tribunal on Monday that all the water firms were monopolies that were not subject to any competitive pressures to provide sewerage services to the public. The companies were all legally required to report pollution to the regulators – the Environment Agency and Ofwat, he said.

“Sewage spills pose a threat to wildlife, the environment and public health,” said Gregory.

The pricing regime, controlled by Ofwat, allows the regulator to limit the amount charged to customers for the monopoly services of providing drinking water and sewerage.

The structure provides a financial incentive for water companies to reduce sewage pollution.

But Gregory said the six companies had misled both Ofwat and the Environment Agency by significantly or systematically underreporting the number of sewage discharges from their treatment works and combined sewer overflows from 2014 onwards.

By misleading the regulators on the true scale of sewage discharges, they had been allowed by Ofwat to charge customers higher prices than if they had reported the sewage pollution accurately, said Gregory.

“Carolyn Roberts estimates across the six water companies customers may have been overcharged £800m to £1.5bn,” he said.

“Many people care deeply about the state of our rivers … sewage spills to them can be incredibly damaging. As the true number of sewage spills have become apparent there has been a public outcry,” he said.

“If the defendants [water companies] have been underreporting spills they will not have been properly incentivised to reduce sewage spills.”

Gregory said analysis of Thames Water data alone suggested the company may have failed to report more than 6,000 raw sewage discharges.

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Roberts is applying to the tribunal for collective proceedings orders (CPOs) against the six water companies.

If the orders are granted, the proposed claims can proceed to a full trial to establish whether water companies have been overcharging household customers. Customers would automatically be refunded millions of pounds.

“As a professor of the environment, I have a deep appreciation of our waterways and their influence on our wider environment and firmly believe in preserving them for future generations,” said Roberts.

“I hope to be authorised as the class representative to bring these claims on behalf of millions of household consumers who have been overcharged due to the anti-competitive practices employed by these six water companies.”

The six water companies are defending the allegations in the tribunal.

A spokesperson for Water UK, the industry body, said: “This highly speculative claim is entirely without merit. The regulator has confirmed that over 99% of sewage works comply with their legal requirements. If companies fail to deliver on their commitments, then bills will automatically be reduced.”

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Weather tracker: Extensive flooding in Japan after ‘unprecedented’ rainfall | Japan

Heavy rain caused extensive flooding in central Japan over the weekend, with at least one person reported dead and several more unaccounted for.

Officials said “unprecedented” rainfall generated floods and landslides in Ishikawa prefecture, where a powerful 7.5-magnitude earthquake on New Year’s Day killed more than 200 people. The Japan meteorological agency issued its highest-level warning for Ishikawa, advising of a “life-threatening situation”.

Authorities ordered tens of thousands of people to evacuate as more than a dozen rivers overflowed by late morning on Saturday, and a number of people were rescued from flood water in the cities of Wajima and Suzu. On Saturday morning 121mm (4.8in) of rain was recorded in one hour in Wajima, and 84.5mm in Suzu.

This was the heaviest rain observed in these locations since comparative data became available in 1929. Niigata and Yamagata prefectures were also affected with 16,000 people told to evacuate.

Elsewhere, Storm Boris moved into Italy late last week, having earlier caused devastation and some of the worst floods in decades in parts of Austria, Romania, the Czech Republic and Poland. The storm inflicted more suffering in some northern and central Italian regions. More than 1,000 people in Emilia-Romagna were forced to evacuate after floods and landslides, while towns in the central region of Marche also experienced significant flooding. The Italian air force was called in to rescue people who had escaped the flood water by climbing on to their rooftops in several towns, including Traversara di Bagnacavallo.

People clean up after flooding in Traversara di Bagnacavallo, Italy. Photograph: Fabrizio Zani/EPA

On the Adriatic coast, the seaside resort of Falconara Marittima had more than 200mm of rain over Wednesday and Thursday. The September average is just 67mm. More than 300mm was recorded in the Apennine mountain region. Conditions improved on Friday and during the course of the weekend as the low pressure responsible for the extreme rainfall eased away.

In stark contrast to the wet weather, northern Portugal has been suffering the effects of deadly wildfires. The prime minister declared a “state of calamity” for the areas worst affected on Tuesday. By Wednesday, 5,000 firefighters were battling more than 100 wildfires. Seven people have died, including three firefighters. Favourable weather conditions helped firefighters to contain the vast majority of the blazes by Friday.

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Middle East crisis live: Israel conducts strikes on ‘terror targets’ in southern Lebanon | Israel

Israel’s military says it is currently conducting strikes on southern Lebanon

Israel’s military has announced on its official Telegram channel that “The IDF is currently conducting strikes on terror targets belonging to the Hezbollah terrorist organisation in southern Lebanon.”

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Key events

William Christou

William Christou reports from Beirut for the Guardian

Citizens in Lebanon’s capital city Beirut and other areas of the country have received text messages asking them to immediately evacuate their residences.

Lebanon’s Minister of Information, Ziad Makari, said that he received a call in which he was asked to evacuate the building, Lebanon’s National News Agency reported Monday morning

The calls comes as Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee, claimed that Hezbollah has hidden missiles and other weaponry across south Lebanon, and urged citizens to leave their homes if they lived near Hezbollah members or infrastructure.

“Very soon, we will attack terrorist targets in Lebanon to stop these threats. I call for Lebanese citizens that live in homes or near homes that Hezbollah hides weapons in to evacuate them immediately,” Adraee said in a video message on Monday morning.

In Beirut, drones could be heard flying low over the city.

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Al Jazeera reports from Gaza that “many Palestinians, including children” have been wounded in an Israeli drone attack east of Khan Younis.

The news network has been banned from operating in Israel by Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, and yesterday Israeli security forces raided and shut down the Al Jazeera bureau in the Israeli-occupied West Bank in Ramallah.

More details soon …

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Defense minister Gallant tells Israeli public to ‘stay calm and disciplined’ in coming days

Israel’s defense minister Yoav Gallant has told the Israeli public they must “stay calm, disciplined and fully compliant with the home front command’s instructions” in the coming days as Israel expands its military operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Haaretz reports that Israel’s home front command issued emergency guidelines on Sunday for residents of the Jezreel Valley and northern regions which included shutting educational establoshments, closing beaches, and limiting public gatherings. Workplaces can stay in operation if they have designated protection areas.

Israel’s military has warned residents of southern Lebanon to flee prior to imminent airstrikes which Israel claims are targeting Hezbollah infrastructure.

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Israel tells residents of southern Lebanese villages to evacuate before imminent airstrikes

Israel’s Arabic-language military spokesperson Avichay Adraee has posted a video warning residents of villages in southern Lebanon that they should evacuate before imminent airstrikes from Israel’s military.

In the message, Adraee said people should leave homes where weapons are hidden, saying that Hezbollah “is lying to you and sacrificing you” and that “missiles and drones are more valuable and important to [Hezbollah] than you.”

#عاجل ‼️ سكان القرى اللبنانية: الغارات ستبدأ على المدى الزمني الوشيك – اخلوا البيوت التي اخبئ فيها #حزب_الله الأسلحة فورًا! حزب الله يكذب عليكم ويضحي فيكم. حزب الله يقول إنكم بيئته وأنكم جمهوره لكن يبدو أن صواريخه ومسيراته أغلى وأهم بالنسبة له منكم. pic.twitter.com/mzw3oEjB9y

— افيخاي ادرعي (@AvichayAdraee) September 23, 2024

There have also been reports, via Reuters, that some residents have been receiving calls, purporting to be from a Lebanese number, warning them to move further than 1km away from Hezbollah infrastructure.

Earlier Israeli military spokesperson Rr Adm Daniel Hagari said the IDF would be conducting “extensive, precise strikes, against terror targets which have been embedded widely throughout Lebanon.”

He added “We advise civilians from Lebanese villages located in and next to buildings and areas used by Hezbollah for military purposes, such as those used to store weapons, to immediately move out of harm’s way for their own safety.”

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The IDF has reported on its official Telegram channel that an attempted stabbing attack by a contractor at Israel’s Lachish base near Beit Guvrin has been prevented. One person was shot, and no soldiers were injured, it said.

More details soon …

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Reuters reports that some residents in southern Lebanon have been receiving calls from what appears to be a Lebanese number warning them to move at least 1,000 metres from any Hezbollah position.

More details soon …

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Here are some of the latest images sent over the news wires from Lebanon, where smoke can be seen billowing across the sky after strikes by Israel. Lebanon’s state news agency has reported one person dead and six wounded as a result of the action which Israel claims is striking at Hezbollah infrastructure.

Smoke billows over southern Lebanon following Israeli strikes, as pictured from Marjayoun. Photograph: Karamallah Daher/Reuters
The aftermath of an Israeli strike as seen from Tyre, southern Lebanon. Photograph: Aziz Taher/Reuters
People walk at a beach as smoke billows over southern Lebanon following Israeli strikes, as seen from Tyre, southern Lebanon. Photograph: Aziz Taher/Reuters
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Israel’s defense minister holds call to brief Lloyd Austin on IDF operations against Hezbollah

Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant has posted to social media to say that overnight he spoke with US secretary of defense Lloyd Austin.

Gallant, whose position in Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet has recently been the subject of much speculation, said he “provided the secretary with a situation assessment of Hezbollah threats” and briefed him on “IDF operations to degrade Hezbollah’s ability to launch attacks against Israeli civilians.”

Gallant added that the pair “also discussed the wider regional situation and the threats posed by Iran and its proxies.”

The US has held the position that it was not briefed in advance on the detail of the suspected Israeli sabotage attack last week which blew up pagers and walkie-talkies in Lebanon, killing dozens and injuring thousands of people.

While Israel has not commented on whether it carried out the attacks, in a video posted overnight Gallant said the past week had been “the most painful of Hezbollah’s existence” citing what he described as the “significant, precise and successful operations” of the IDF.

Netanyahu’s defense minister said Israel’s goal was to return people to their homes in northern Israel. Thousands of people in northern Israel and southern Lebanon have been forced to evacuate due to the near constant exchanges of fire between Israel and anti-Israeli forces in the area since 7 October.

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One killed, six wounded in Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon – reports

Lebanon’s state-owned national news agency has reported that Israel launched airstrikes against multiple locations in southern Lebanon, and that at least one person has been killed and six have been wounded. It reports that among those hit a shepherd was killed, and two of his family were wounded, and that four people were transferred to hospital.

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In the last few minutes the IDF has said on its official Telegram channel that warning sirens in the western Galilee area had been a false identification of hostile aircraft.

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Israeli ground incursion of Lebanon possible, IDF suggests

The Israeli military has suggested a ground incursion in Lebanon may be needed to secure its war goals as it conducted another round of extensive strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

Reuters reports Monday’s strikes constituted the most geographically widespread bombing that Israel has simultaneously carried out since its conflict with the Iran-based movement a year ago in parallel with the war on Gaza.

Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Daniel Hagari said Israel began striking Hezbollah posts in Lebanon after identifying an intention to fire on Israel. Asked by reporters about a possible Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon, Hagari said “we will do whatever is needed” in order to return evacuated residents of northern Israel to their homes safely – a war priority for the Israeli government.

Israeli warplanes carried out an intense wave of airstrikes on towns along Lebanon’s southern border and even further north on Monday morning, according to Reuters witnesses.

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Opening summary

Welcome to our live coverage of Israel’s war in Gaza and the wider Middle East crisis.

The Israeli military said on Monday it was conducting extensive strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and urged villagers near areas used by the militant group in the country’s south to evacuate.

The strikes come amid some of the heaviest cross-border exchanges of fire in nearly a year of conflict.

The chief Israeli military spokesperson, R Adm Daniel Hagari, said on Monday the Israel Defense Forces had begun “striking terrorist targets throughout Lebanon” after “indications that Hezbollah was preparing to fire towards Israeli territory”.

Hagari said in a video posted on X: “We advise civilians in Lebanese villages located in and next to buildings and areas used by Hezbollah for military purposes – such as those used to store weapons – to immediately move out of harm’s way for their own safety.”

Monday’s strikes came a day after the Iranian-backed Hezbollah sent rockets deep into northern Israeli territory. The militant group fired more than 100 rockets early on Sunday across a deep and wide area of northern Israel, some landing near the city of Haifa. The barrage came after an Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Friday killed at least 45 people, including one of Hezbollah’s top leaders.

Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem said at the funeral of one of the group’s commanders killed: “We have entered a new phase, the title of which is the open-ended battle of reckoning.”

Mourners carry the coffin of Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Akil during his funeral procession in Beirut on Sunday. He was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Friday. Photograph: Wael Hamzeh/EPA

The exchanges of fire prompted the UN secretary general, António Guterres, to warn of the risk “of transforming Lebanon [into] another Gaza”.

In other developments:

  • Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said it had in recent days dealt Hezbollah “a series of blows it could not have imagined”. The Israeli defence minister, Yoav Gallant, said operations would continue until it was safe for evacuated people on the northern Israeli side of the border to return. Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, said Israel did not want a war with Lebanon but that it had a right to self-defence. Israel’s civil defence agency, meanwhile, ordered all schools in the country’s north to close.

  • Israel’s chief of the general staff, Herzi Halevi, said the military was well prepared for the next stages of fighting, which were coming in the next few days. “We will do whatever it takes to removes threats against Israel,” he said in a televised statement.

  • Israeli forces raided the office of global news channel Al Jazeera in the occupied West Bank on Sunday and issued a 45-day closure order. The Israeli military said it closed the Al Jazeera TV office in Ramallah because it incited “terror”, an accusation the network vehemently denies.

  • At least 41,431 Palestinian people have been killed and 95,818 injured in Israeli strikes on Gaza since 7 October, the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory said.

  • An Israeli airstrike killed at least seven people in the Kafr Qasem school in Beach camp – which was sheltering displaced families – in Gaza City on Sunday, Palestinian health officials said.

  • Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said 12 people had been arrested for being operatives collaborating with Israel and planning acts against Iran’s security. The arrests were in six different Iranian provinces, it said.

  • Israel is examining a plan to use siege tactics against Hamas in northern Gaza, Benjamin Netanyahu was quoted by several Israeli media outlets as saying. The prime minister’s office did not respond to a request for comment. The reports on Sunday cited unnamed sources at a closed parliament committee meeting.

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