Emmanuel Macron’s centrist grouping was fighting for survival this weekend before the first round of France’s high-stakes snap election, which could see the far-right National Rally (RN) become the biggest force in parliament.

Macron, who warned last week that France risked “civil war” if Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration RN, or the leftwing New Popular Front coalition, came to power, said at the European summit in Brussels that “uninhibited racism and antisemitism” had been unleashed in France.

But his strategy of stoking a climate of fear, in which his centrists are presented as the only rational force to hold back the breakdown of French society, is seen as backfiring.

Antoine Bristielle, the director of opinion at the Fondation Jean-Jaurès thinktank, said that since Macron called the election, France’s political future was extremely difficult to read. “Macron is more and more unpredictable,” he said. “It’s as if he’s running the country like he’s in a Netflix series – and has to put a cliffhanger at the end of each episode.”

Macron called the parliamentary poll after his centrist party was trounced by the far-right RN in the European election, saying it would “clarify” the political landscape. But even figures close to the president acknowledge that many of his own voters are uneasy over the resulting political turmoil and feel Macron himself has created chaos.

The exact results of the two-round election, with a high turnout expected in the first round on Sunday, are complex to predict. But the RN is riding on a wave of support. Polls show the party taking the greatest share of seats, followed by the left alliance, ahead of Macron’s centrists.

Political analysts say France is entering uncharted waters. If Le Pen’s party manages to go from its current 88 seats to an absolute majority of 289, it would form a far-right government and Macron would have to share power. Equally, the RN could win the largest number of seats but fall short of an absolute majority. Macron could then find himself with a hung parliament unable to produce a stable majority to govern the European Union’s second economy and its top military power.

Christelle Craplet, director of opinion at BVA pollsters, said that “the dynamique for the RN is strong”. She described a polarised mood in France. “Many of Macron’s core electorate are wondering why he dissolved parliament and called this election,” she said.

“There is incomprehension and anxiety, particularly among older voters who make up the core of Macron’s electorate. But equally, RN voters feel a sense of hope and satisfaction at this election. RN voters want change. Polling shows it’s not just passing anger or disgust at politics, they adhere to the party’s positions, saying they want to see things change in France, that they’re let down by political parties and feel why not try the RN.”

She said: “On the left, voters are also expressing a great deal of worry, because the left in France has historically constructed itself in opposition to the RN.”

Macron’s lack of popularity is at the centre of the election race. Centrist candidates for his Renaissance party have deliberately published posters without his name or face. “People detest you,” the former Renaissance MP Patrick Vignal was reported by Le Monde to have told Macron, summing up the mood on the ground. Most centrists wanted Macron to keep a low-profile during the campaign, to avoid the sense of a referendum against the president, but he has continued to give interviews and make public comments almost daily.

Macron was first elected in 2017 on a vow to defend progressive ideals and revolutionise the workings of French politics. Many voters he won from the centre-left have felt increasingly alienated during his second term, after he forced through of a rise in the pension age, as well as a hardline immigration law. Macron’s promise, in a recent letter to the French people, to govern differently, has not been taken seriously by voters.

Bristielle said that a feeling of rejection of Macron had been building over time and this was seen in his one-time voters from the centre-left. “That feeling is very linked to his personality and his way of doing politics, particularly [in] his second term. It is about pension changes, immigration law, but also what is seen to be a lack of willing on environmental issues and even on feminism, such as his support for Gérard Depardieu.” Macron faced anger from feminists and the left last year when he described the actor Dépardieu – who is under formal investigation for rape and was at the time facing fresh scrutiny for sexist comments – as the target of a “manhunt”.

The political scientist Jérôme Jaffré told Le Figaro last week there was a “visceral hostility” towards Macron among working-class voters. The president had hoped that the lightning three-week campaign would help him recover the support he lost in the European elections; instead, polls suggest it has fallen further.

Whether the left alliance can now make solid gains in parliament will depend on the results of the runoffs on 7 July.

I had a very happy childhood – I know that’s against the law. Everybody is suited to certain times of life and I was very suited to being a child. I am very suited to having no responsibilities.

I was really looking forward to my first day at kindergarten. I was only five. The day ended with me sitting in the corner with a Band-Aid over my mouth and holding up a sign saying: “I am a chatterbox.” Now I get paid for what I was punished for.

I grew up in a small town in New Jersey – a very beautiful, old pre-revolutionary war town. There was a portrait of George Washington in every single public room of every single building in the entire town. George Washington was a big part of my childhood.

Algebra was the end of school for me. I only had half a brain. Fractions were hard enough. I still count on my fingers.

I stopped playing the cello after my grandmother gave me a Pablo Casals record. When I heard what could be done on that instrument I thought, forget it, I could never do that. I am a perfectionist – and not just with myself.

Nothing is more contagious than a bad idea.

Happiness is a sensation, a fleeting thing. To me, it’s a pleasure, and there are moments of pleasure and sometimes even days of pleasure. I’m not like, “Why am I not happy all the time?” That’s a thing that came from Los Angeles.

I am a very angry person. I am angry almost all the time, especially when I’m not alone. I know my anger is disproportionate and I don’t express it. I knew from a really young age: do not act on this.

It’s imperative to me that people I spend time with have a good sense of humour. I don’t mean that they’re funny. I just mean that they know that things can be funny. Most things, other than tragedy, of which there is an over-abundance, are funny.

I hate money. I hate it physically; I hate having to earn it. But I’m also extremely materialistic, so I hate money, but I love things, you know? Like clothes, apartments…

People used to say, “If I was a millionaire…” Now they say, “If I was a billionaire…” I always say to these people: “Do you know how much a billion is?” And they really don’t. A couple of years ago I heard the word trillion. No one should ever use that word unless they are an astronomer.

Romantic relationships are not choices, they are some chemical response you have to someone. Friendships are, to me, the most important relationships in life, because they are the only wholly chosen relationships. I believe I am an excellent friend.

Toni Morrison was a very close friend of mine. She probably had the biggest influence on me – she was one of the few people I actually listened to. When she died I spoke at her memorial service. I said: “For more than 40 years she was at least two of my four closest friends.” She was also the only wise person I have ever known and she just had this immense humanity. She once said to me, “You are always right, but never fair.” What she meant was I don’t give everybody the same credence for just being human. And that’s true, I don’t. But she did.

I find any food preparation to be immensely tedious. But, of course, I love to eat.

I absolutely don’t care about how I’m remembered. I think people who care about this believe in life after death, which means you don’t believe in death. To me, it’s like someone asking me what I’d like for dinner after I die. You know what? I’m good.

An Evening with Fran Lebowitz is in selected UK venues from 28 October, fane.co.uk/fran-lebowitz

America was meant to be Britain’s route to the sunlit uplands of Brexit. Then, after hopes of a free trade deal evaporated, successive Conservative governments have set their sights lower, by trying to forge closer ties with individual US states.

Now the civil servants responsible for delivering those state-level deals have been let go, in what a furious British businessman described as “an act of arson”.

More than one-sixth of trade posts within British consulates in the US have been axed, with 24 people losing their jobs and other vacancies left unfilled, out of 150 posts. The decision was taken barely two weeks before Rishi Sunak called the general election.

Many of the trade teams, based in the nine consulates across the US, had worked on trade pacts with Kemi Badenoch, the business and trade secretary, jetting around America to sign memorandums of understanding with governors of states including Florida, Indiana and Oklahoma.

But more importantly, according to British business leaders in the US, the regional trade directors and their staff had decades of experience and had built up contacts with American businesses from Google and Meta to the heads of Hollywood studios.

Jules Ehrhardt, a designer and investor, said there was “outrage and disbelief in the British business community” at the decision.

“They are tossing out collective centuries of relational and institutional knowledge core to the UK-US trading relationship,” he said. Ehrhardt moved to the US in 2012 to open the American arm of Ustwo, a digital design studio behind award-winning games such as Monument Valley, and worked with Google, Nike and Twitter, before founding a venture capital firm, FKTRY.

He said the consulate directors had “served as the connective tissue” between British and American business leaders, making introductions, giving advice and lending their expertise. “We shot ourselves in both feet by undermining Britain’s ‘gateway to Europe’ status for American companies following Brexit, and were told to go west, and now we’ve self-elected a lobotomy,” Ehrhardt said.

“This [is an] act of arson in the final stages of this government. We claim it is a special relationship, yet remove our people at the very heart of it.”

Allan Rooney, founder of Rooney Law, which has helped more than 300 companies from the UK, Ireland and Australia enter the US market, said the directors were “absolutely critical in building strong and mutually beneficial trade relationships between UK and US businesses”.

“The facilitation of strategic introductions that these directors provide is a massive benefit,” he said. “They plug companies into a market they otherwise don’t know anything about. They familiarise them via trade missions and other methods to support and understand the market and the subtle differences between the UK and the US ‘doing business’ culture. Removing that layer will impact trade relations.

“More than a million Brits are employed by American businesses – I can’t think of a more important trade relationship post-Brexit. It’s critical. And I think the removal of a very large swathe of intellectual capital and institutional knowledge is potentially worrisome. It could strain the trade teams who are already short on resources.”

Another US-based British business executive said that there was very little stability in the UK’s consulates because they were usually staffed by Foreign & Commonwealth Office officials who stayed in the US for two- or three-year periods. “It’s a constant revolving door,” the executive said. “Those are the people we lean on.”

William Bain, head of trade policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “If we want to grow our economy then we need to boost trade, so it’s a concern if cuts are being made to the team supporting key export sectors in the US, our second largest trading partner.

“We need to scale up, not slash, our support for companies seeking to enter or raise market share in the US. This is especially true as we hope to see deals on critical minerals and digital trade reached with the US federal government in the next year or so.”

Boris Johnson, Liam Fox and other Brexiters had hoped that signing a trade deal with the US would provide economic growth for the UK, but Johnson failed to persuade either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. Last June, Rishi Sunak signed an “Atlantic declaration” with Biden which allowed UK firms access to some US subsidies.

State-level deals have seen some recognition of British professional qualifications and removed some regulatory barriers.

A UK government spokesperson said: “The UK’s trade and investment teams in America are fully focused on furthering UK interests in the US, driving investment and strengthening our trading relationship with our closest ally. We continually keep our structures under review to ensure they deliver maximum impact for the UK, ensure the highest quality service to businesses, while offering taxpayers the very best value for money.”

The New York Times’s editorial board has called on Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 presidential race after a disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump.

Biden’s poor performance sent leading Democrats into a panic on Thursday night, after the US president appeared shaky and at points struggled to finish sentences. It amplified fears about his age and fitness for office that it had been hoped the debate would allay.

Shortly after the debate, senior Democrats including the vice-president, Kamala Harris, acknowledged Biden’s “slow start” but emphasised his “strong finish”, while others privately suggested he should step aside.

In a move that will add further pressure on the White House, the New York Times editorial board said in an opinion piece on Friday that “the greatest public service [Biden] can now perform is to announce that he will not continue to run for re-election”.

“The president appeared on Thursday night as the shadow of a great public servant,” it said. “He struggled to explain what he would accomplish in a second term. He struggled to respond to [Trump’s] provocations. He struggled to hold [Trump] accountable for his lies, his failures and his chilling plans. More than once, he struggled to make it to the end of a sentence.”

“Biden is not the man he was four years ago,” it added.

Earlier in the day, the leading New York Times columnist Thomas L Friedman called on his “friend” to step aside. “Joe Biden, a good man and a good president, has no business running for re-election,” he said.

The former US president Barack Obama defended Biden in a social media post on Friday. “Bad debate nights happen,” he said. “But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself.”

In a campaign stop in North Carolina on Friday, Biden appeared far more energised and coherent. He acknowledged his widely panned debate performance.

“I don’t walk as easily as I used to, I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to, I don’t debate as well as I used to,” Biden said. “But I know what I do know. I know how to tell the truth.”

The New York Times has become the first US newspaper to call on Biden to drop out of the race, but other influential publications including the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times and the Atlantic have published op-eds by their leading columnists calling on Biden to step aside. Journal columnist Peggy Noonan said allowing Biden to continue “looks like elder abuse”.

In 2020, the New York Times jointly endorsed Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren in the Democratic primary.

In response to the NYT’s call, the Biden campaign co-chair Cedric Richmond told CNN: “The last time Joe Biden lost the New York Times editorial board’s endorsement, it turned out pretty well for him.”

Biden and Trump are neck and neck in national polls for November. A New York Times/Sienna poll published this week before the debate found that Trump had a three-point lead over Biden. In the “battleground” states that are key to winning the White House, Trump is ahead in six out of seven, according to RealClearPolling.

The Conservative party deputy chair Angela Richardson called the sewage crisis a “political football” and claimed opposition parties and activists had put Tory MPs in physical danger by campaigning on the issue.

Richardson, who is standing for re-election in Guildford, where the River Wey was recently found to have 10 times the safe limit of E coli, also suggested the only reason people were talking about the problem was “because the Conservatives let everyone know it was happening”.

Speaking at a hustings held last week by Zero Carbon Guildford, Richardson was asked about her party’s record on sewage spills. “The reason we’re all talking about this is because the Conservatives let everyone know it was happening,” she said. “If you go and have a look at the manifestos in 2019 you will not find anything about water quality. It is a very, very convenient hobby horse to jump on and attack Conservative MPs for voting against things that would not work.”

She added that activists putting up blue plaques around the town criticising her record on the issue in 2021 “resulted in a police helicopter above my house and police sniffer dogs through my house”.

“I was in danger because of the actions taken by political parties. It is no laughing matter,” she went on. “So my suggestion to everybody is to actually look at what we’re trying to do, working together and not turning this into a political football that’s actually dangerous.”

In March it was revealed that raw sewage was discharged into waterways for 3.6m hours in 2023 by England’s privatised water firms, more than double the figure in 2022.

The issue has become a theme of this election, as opposition parties take aim at ministers’ failure to get to grips with the crisis.

Research by the Rivers Trust found that sewage was spilled for 1,372 hours in the Guildford constituency last year, and recent water testing by local campaigners found E coli in the river last month at nearly 10 times the safe rate in government standards.

Richardson’s comments have caused outrage among campaigners. “Every single river in England is now polluted and one of the largest sources of that pollution is the water industry, so for her to even suggest this is some sort of hobby horse or convenient political issue is wrong,” said the environmental campaigner Feargal Sharkey.

“It is clearly an act of desperation that instead of taking responsibility for the environmental decimation caused by their own incompetence they are now trying to shift blame away and point the finger at others. It is the dying, decaying voice of a discredited government.”

The campaign group Surfers Against Sewage said: “Sewage pollution has become a core election issue because people love being in and around water but they are getting sick when they do it. We have been campaigning on this issue for nearly 35 years, because we surfers, swimmers and water users have been getting sick when we do what we love.

“We don’t want anybody to feel in danger and do not condone any actions that threaten any individuals,” the spokesperson said. “But as campaigners and indeed as citizens in a democracy it is our duty to hold elected representatives to account for the decisions they have made in a proportionate and effective manner.”

Richardson told the Observer her support for government legislation on the issue showed her “commitment to tackle storm overflows, which are now fully monitored thanks to this Conservative government”. She claimed that opposition parties and activists have wrongly “allowed the public to believe that we voted to put sewage into our waterways”.

She confirmed the police response to the Observer, saying it occurred on 30 October 2021 – 15 days after the murder of MP David Amess – and came after the police received “credible intelligence that a protest would target a local MP’s home”.

She added: “While my property was then deemed safe, no elected representative of any party should feel their safety is under threat in order to represent their constituents.” Surrey Police confirmed that it responded to a report of a suspicious incident that day with a helicopter and dog units, but that “the situation was thoroughly investigated, and officers found no cause for concern”.

The autumn cannot arrive soon enough for Dmytro, when his handlers have promised to get him out of Ukraine.

For the past month, the 31-year-old photographer from Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, has been holed up in his flat, rarely stepping outside, to avoid being conscripted into the army. “I want to leave the country. My mind can’t take being trapped here any more,” Dmytro said.

Since the start of the war, thousands of Ukrainian men have illegally crossed the Ukrainian border to dodge conscription, despite a nationwide ban prohibiting men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving.

Attempts to flee the country are expected to increase after Ukraine’s recent adoption of new sweeping mobilisation measures, which allow the military to call up more soldiers and impose stricter penalties for draft evasion.

“I never thought about leaving until the mobilisation laws were introduced. But I can’t stay in my flat forever,” Dmytro said.

Through friends who had already fled, Dmytro obtained contacts and approached individuals online promising to facilitate his escape for a hefty fee, starting from €8,000 (£6,800).

“I am not made for war. I can’t kill people, even if they are Russians. I won’t last long on the front … I want to build a family and see the world. I am not ready to die,” he said.

Dmytro was unsure if he could trust the handlers, who had recently raised their prices to meet the growing demand, but said he saw no other options.

More than two years into Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s armed forces are desperately short of soldiers.

Since the start of the war, hundreds of thousands of ordinary Ukrainians have volunteered to serve at the front, helping to maintain the country’s independence and repel the initial attack.

Many of those initial soldiers are dead, wounded or simply exhausted, leaving the military to recruit among a more reluctant pool of men.

To fill the ranks, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, last April signed a controversial law that lowered the mobilisation age from 27 to 25. Under the new guidelines, draft evaders can lose their driving licence, have their bank accounts frozen and property seized.

Even before the latest mobilisation drive, more than 20,000 men are believed to have fled the country to avoid service, some of them swimming and drowning in attempting to cross Ukraine’s mountainous western border into Romania.

In April, Andriy Demchenko, the head of the Ukrainian state border guard service, reported that at least 30 Ukrainian men had died attempting to cross, though the real number is probably much higher, as some bodies are very unlikely ever to be recovered.

As mobilisation officers roam the cities to draft men of military age, many such as Dmytro have hatched plans to leave, fearing they will not survive long on the frontlines.

Since the war’s beginning, the draft has been criticised as chaotic and tarnished by corruption. Ukraine has intensified its efforts to stop people fleeing across borders and evading the draft, highlighted by Zelenskiy’s dismissal of all regional military recruitment chiefs in April. This dismissal followed reports of officers accepting bribes to exempt men from conscription.

But the practice appears to be hard for the authorities to root out.

Andrei, a 23-year-old IT worker from Odesa, shared with the Guardian a message he had received from a handler in late May with information on how he could leave the country. The detailed instructions outlined two escape pathways: one involved crossing the Moldovan border using a fake passport, while the other option would list Andrei as an artist, a category occasionally permitted to exit the country. Both schemes cost about €8,000, the handler wrote.

Last summer, Andrei had already attempted to cross the border into Moldova using a fake medical certificate that said he was unfit for service.

That attempt failed when border patrol questioned the authenticity of the certificate. He was promptly taken to a conscription office, but was released after paying a bribe.

“The journey is only getting more difficult and border officials are less eager to take bribes. I don’t think I will be this lucky a second time if things go wrong,” he said.

Andrei said he was still considering the handler’s offer, adding that the fee would be his life savings. “For now, I am on a self-imposed house arrest. I don’t leave my flat at all,” he said.

Some of his mobilised friends had already been deployed and killed, he said, which damaged his mental health.

There are no exact figures for how many men are hiding or planning to leave, but in big cities Telegram channels with thousands of members have sprung up where users report sightings of state representatives to help others avoid them.

Interviews with five men who were hiding at home to avoid conscription revealed a variety of reasons for doing it.

Many voiced their dread of perishing in a battle marked by gruesome trench fighting and a brutal death rate. Others mentioned their resistance to conscription because of what they perceived as inadequate training before being sent to the frontlines. Some chose to avoid mobilisation on complex family grounds.

Mykhailo, a gym instructor from Mariupol working in Kyiv, said his parents were still living in the coastal city that Russia occupied in the spring of 2022 after a brutal siege.

“My family in Mariupol will be in direct danger if the Russians find out that I am fighting,” he said.

“I love my country and want to fight, but family comes first. It is a very difficult situation.”

Mykhailo, like others, has been avoiding going out, ordering food at home and only venturing to his nearby gym.

“I recently missed my best friend’s birthday because I was too afraid to leave. It’s a very restricted life, to say the least,” he remarked.

Mykhailo said several of his friends had already fled the country and he occasionally considered that option.

While overall support for the country’s troops remain high and polls show that there is still a considerable number of men willing to be mobilised, Ukraine’s conscription drive risks dividing Ukrainian society, already plagued by war fatigue.

Many Ukrainian soldiers at the front, or those who have returned after being injured, criticise draft dodging, arguing that the practice weakens their country’s war effort as Russian forces make advances across multiple fronts.

Standing outside a cafe in Kyiv, leaning on a crutch, Roman, who was discharged from service after a shell hit his right leg, expressed his disappointment when hearing stories of men hiding or attempting to flee the country.

“I understand that people are scared, but we simply need new recruits to keep fighting,” Roman said, requesting that his last name not be published.

“If not us, then who will protect this country?”

*Some names have been changed

Martin Mull, whose droll, esoteric comedy and acting made him a hip sensation in the 1970s and later a beloved guest star on sitcoms including Roseanne and Arrested Development, has died, his daughter said Friday. He was 80 years old.

Mull’s daughter, TV writer and comic artist Maggie Mull, said her father died at home on Thursday after “a valiant fight against a long illness”.

Mull, who was also a guitarist and painter, came to national fame with a recurring role on the Norman Lear-created satirical soap opera Mary Hartman, Mary Hartman, and the starring role in its spinoff Fernwood Tonight, on which he played Barth Gimble, the host of a satirical talk show.

“He was known for excelling at every creative discipline imaginable and also for doing Red Roof Inn commercials,” Maggie Mull said in an Instagram post. “He would find that joke funny. He was never not funny. My dad will be deeply missed by his wife and daughter, by his friends and coworkers, by fellow artists and comedians and musicians, and – the sign of a truly exceptional person – by many, many dogs.”

Known for his blonde hair and well-trimmed mustache, Mull was born in Chicago, raised in Ohio and Connecticut and studied art in Rhode Island and Rome. He combined his music and comedy in hip Hollywood clubs in the 1970s.

“In 1976 I was a guitar player and sit-down comic appearing at the Roxy on the Sunset Strip when Norman Lear walked in and heard me,” Mull told the Associated Press in 1980. “He cast me as the wife beater on Mary Hartman, Mary Hartman. Four months later I was spun off on my own show.”

In the 1980s he appeared in films including Mr Mom and Clue, and in the 1990s had a recurring role on Roseanne.

He would later play private eye Gene Parmesan on “Arrested Development,” and would be nominated for an Emmy in 2016 for a guest turn on “Veep.”

“What I did on ‘Veep’ I’m very proud of, but I’d like to think it’s probably more collective, at my age it’s more collective,” Mull told the AP after his nomination. “It might go all the way back to ‘Fernwood.’”

Other comedians and actors were often his biggest fans.

“Martin was the greatest,” “Bridesmaids” director Paul Feig said in an X post. “So funny, so talented, such a nice guy. Was lucky enough to act with him on The Jackie Thomas Show and treasured every moment being with a legend. Fernwood Tonight was so influential in my life.”

According to the most intriguing bit of her between-song chat, Dua Lipa’s headlining Glastonbury slot came about as a result of an act of childhood manifesting. The singer claims she wrote out her desire to top the bill on the Pyramid stage in detail, up to and including what night said event should take place on: a Friday, so she “could spend the rest of the weekend partying”. And now here we are: watching a slightly peculiar video of Dua Lipa signing her name and writing the words “GLASTO 24” on a pane of glass, then licking it.

Whether you buy the stuff about manifesting or not, Dua Lipa has clearly spent a lot of time carefully studying and absorbing how a successful Glastonbury headline set works, and putting what she’s gleaned to good use. The announcement of her appearance led to a degree of consternation, particularly after her most recent album, Radical Optimism, failed to replicate the kind of world-beating success afforded its predecessor, the lockdown smash Future Nostalgia. But she already has a stockpile of inescapable hits, from New Rules to her Elton John collaboration Cold Heart, which is half the battle won. And furthermore she throws everything she has at her set in order to lend it a sense of event, rather than it being simply another pop show transposed to a field in Somerset, another stop-off on a world tour that happens to be on a farm.

There are confetti canons galore. There are pyrotechnics – so many of them during Levitating that you wonder what they can possibly do for the finale, although they just about manage to top it. There is a crowdpleasing reference to the festival’s hedonism, albeit not from the lips of the singer herself, who largely confines herself to asking the audience how they’re feeling: instead, she takes the stage to the famous clip of Peter Fonda in the 1966 biker movie The Wild Angels informing the squares that he wants to get loaded and have a good time. And there is an equally crowdpleasing guest appearance by Tame Impala’s Kevin Parker – his jeans and T-shirt at odds with the main attraction’s constant costume changes; a moment where the pair fluff their vocals and laugh at odds with the show’s tightly choreographed feel – performing not one of his Dua Lipa collaborations but his own biggest hit, The Less I Know the Better: 1.6bn streams and counting.

Hallucinate makes some of Lipa’s more recent efforts look a little wan by comparison. House-fuelled and thrillingly hook-laden, it may well be one of the best pop singles in recent memory – which is not a claim anyone is going to make on behalf of the serviceable but unexceptional Houdini, nor Training Season. There are a couple of less impressive songs from Radical Optimism thrown into the mix: the pass-aggy Happy for You; the acoustic guitar-driven These Walls.

The latter was the solitary track on said album which vaguely suggested the Britpop influence she spent a lot of time talking up prior to its release, but listening to it tonight, it sounds more like the other stuff that sold millions in the 90s. It’s not a huge stretch to imagine it sung by Texas or Natalie Imbruglia or even the Corrs. But the set tucks these songs away amid the hits so successfully that you scarcely notice. There’s always another cast-iron banger on the way: Levitating, Physical, Illusion.

“It’s a lot, innit,” she gasps at one point, surveying the full extent of an enormous crowd, who moreover stay put throughout: there’s none of the wastage that signals a Glastonbury headliner getting it wrong and driving their audience towards the festival’s other manifold delights. It’s an unequivocal success.

Panicking Democrats were speculating about whether Joe Biden should be replaced as their party’s nominee for US president following a disastrous debate performance that turned whispers about his age and fitness into a roar.

Biden’s shaky, raspy-voiced showing against Donald Trump at the first presidential debate in Atlanta on Thursday was widely panned as a disaster that, instead of assuaging fears about his mental acuity, amplified them on the biggest political stage.

Even before the torturous 90 minutes were over, senior Democratic figures and donors were calling or texting in despair and exploring the potential to draft a late alternative to Biden at August’s Democratic national convention, although elected officials remained publicly loyal to the president.

“Every Democrat I know is texting that this is bad,” Ravi Gupta, a former Barack Obama campaign aide, wrote on X. “Just say it publicly and begin the hard work of creating space in the convention for a selection process. I’ll vote for a corpse over Trump, but this is a suicide mission.”

On Friday, Biden appeared at a campaign rally in North Carolina, where he gave an entirely more spirited performance, landing his lines with much greater force than the previous night and attacking his opponent with vigour.

“Did you see Trump last night? It’s sincerely a new record for the most lies told in a single debate,” Biden told an enthusiastic crowd that spontaneously broke into chants of “Four more years”.

He challenged Trump on his lies about the economy, the pandemic, and the January 6 insurrection, called Trump a “one-man crime wave” and added: “The thing that bothers me most about him is that he has no respect for women or the law.”

Biden also reiterated his standard campaign promises to restore the right to abortion and to defend Medicare and social security, and added, in a pointed nod to his debate showing that had the crowd roaring its appreciation: “When you get knocked down you get back up.”

But observers were left wondering where Friday’s energetic Biden was the night before, after the president had spent nearly a week at the Camp David presidential retreat preparing for the debate. He even sold cans of water labeled “Dark Brandon’s Secret Sauce” on his campaign website, mocking suggestions from Trump and his advisers that he would use drugs to enhance his performance.

The debate’s early date and rules – no studio audience and muted microphones to prevent interruptions – had been requested by the Biden campaign, eager to bring voter’s attention to the discussion and the threat posed by Trump. They wanted the president to demonstrate strength and energy.

But the plan backfired spectacularly in Biden’s performance, which was punctuated by repeated stumbles over words, uncomfortable pauses and a quiet speaking style that was often difficult to understand. The president lost his train of thought at times, especially early on, and Trump was quick to capitalise: “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said either.”

The former president projected confidence, even when he was blatantly wrong on the facts, and seemed younger and sharper than Biden. David Plouffe, a former campaign manager for Obama, told MSNBC: “They’re three years apart. They seemed about 30 years apart tonight.” He described Biden’s performance as a “Defcon 1 moment”.

Biden rallied somewhat later in the debate, launching some deeply personal attacks on his opponent, but it was too late to change his first impression. His campaign aides blamed his hoarse voice on a cold, but his split screen reactions to Trump – open mouth, eyes cast down – underlined his status as the oldest president in history.

US elections 2024: a guide to the first presidential debate

Biden’s surrogates were slow to enter the post-debate spin room in Atlanta and, when they finally emerged, they largely avoided questions from the press. Instead they railed against Trump’s long list of falsehoods during the debate, which were not flagged by CNN’s fact checkers.

At a Waffle House restaurant in Atlanta, Biden was asked whether he had any concerns about his performance. He replied: “No. It’s hard to debate a liar.”

But Democratic strategists and rank-and-file voters alike were publicly and privately questioning whether the party might yet swap him out for a younger standard bearer against Trump in November’s election.

Claire McCaskill, a former Democratic senator, told MSNBC that her phone was “blowing up” with senators, operatives and donors in deep alarm. “Joe Biden had one thing he had to do tonight, and he didn’t do it,” she said. “He had one thing he had to accomplish, and that was reassure America that he was up to the job at his age, and he failed at that tonight.”

McCaskill added: “I’m not the only one whose heart is breaking right now. There’s a lot of people who watched this tonight and felt terribly for Joe Biden. I don’t know if things can be done to fix this.”

Two influential New York Times columnists, Tom Friedman and Nick Kristof, expressed dismay at the showing and called on the president to bow out of the race.

Under current Democratic party rules it would be difficult, if not impossible, to replace Biden as the party’s nominee without his cooperation or without party officials being willing to rewrite its rules at the convention in Chicago.

The president won the overwhelming majority of Democratic delegates during the state-by-state primary process. Party rules state: “Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.”

However, if polling suggests that Biden might hurt congressional candidates in down ballot races, donor money could dry up and pressure could mount on him to gracefully step aside. That might involve a delegation of party elders convening a meeting with the president and pleading with him to pass the torch.

Such a move would trigger a frenzied, potentially divisive contest for the nomination with possible contenders including vice-president Kamala Harris, California governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, Maryland governor Wes Moore, transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg and even former first lady Michelle Obama.

Steve Schmidt, a political strategist who worked on the election campaigns of Republicans George W Bush and John McCain, wrote on his Substack: “Joe Biden lost his presidency last night, but because it happened in June, it does not mean that Trump will win … It is time for Joe Biden to begin the preparations necessary to put the country first. They will require him to say the following: ‘I will not accept my party’s nomination for a second term.’”

Others, however, took the view that there is still time to recover after what was the earliest-ever presidential debate. Many voters have not yet tuned into an election that is still more than four months away. The Biden campaign announced that it has raised $14m on Thursday night and Friday morning – money that can be spent on advertising and swing state infrastructure.

Trump remains a hugely polarising figure with historic vulnerabilities, including his conviction last month in New York in a case involving hush money payments to the adult film performer Stormy Daniels, his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and his chaotic term in office. Biden described him as a “whiner” and “child” who cheated on his wife with “a porn star” and had the “morals of an alley cat”.

There is precedent for recovering from rough debate performances, including Obama’s rebound from a poor showing against Mitt Romney in 2012. John Fetterman, Democratic senator of Pennsylvania, went on to defeat a Republican rival in 2022 after struggling through a debate several months after experiencing a stroke.

Fetterman tweeted on Friday: “I refuse to join the Democratic vultures on Biden’s shoulder after the debate. No one knows more than me that a rough debate is not the sum total of the person and their record.”

Newsom, who was Biden’s most prominent surrogate in the Atlanta spin room, urged Democrats not to melt down. He said: “I think it’s unhelpful. And I think it’s unnecessary. We’ve got to go in, we’ve got to keep our heads high. We’ve got to have the back of this president. You don’t turn back because of one performance. What kind of party does that?”

In what several supporters described as a “night and day” difference from his performance in last night’s debate, President Joe Biden on Friday vowed to keep fighting against what he framed as an existential threat to America.

In his first campaign stop following the debate, Biden showed off a louder and more dynamic voice at the North Carolina state fairgrounds in Raleigh.

“I know what millions of Americans know,” Biden said. “When you get knocked down, you get back up.”

During the 15-minute speech in a sweltering building that saw at least one person faint, Biden ran through a list of issues from high-speed internet to border security, but spent a good deal of his time denouncing Donald Trump’s honesty and integrity.

“I don’t walk as easily as I used to, I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to, I don’t debate as well as I used to,” Biden said, addressing the widespread criticism of his Thursday performance. “But I know what I do know. I know how to tell the truth.”

Repeating a line from the debate, he said of Trump, his rival for the White House, “I spent 90 minutes on a stage debating a guy who has the morals of an alley cat.” Biden added: “I think he [Trump] set a new record for the number of lies told at a single debate.”

Although there was enough empty room in some of the bleachers for people to move around easily, the crowd shouted an encouraging: “Yes, you can!” when Biden began to talk about how well he could do the job of president in what would be his mid-80s.

If some in the crowd came to the rally holding their breath, many seemed relieved to see more energy from the Democratic president.

“Night and day,” said Brenda Pollard, a delegate to the Democratic national convention from Durham, North Carolina. “I mean, to me, today was who he is. And there it is, just like I just said, he’s energized by the people. Last night he didn’t have that. That’s no excuse, but I think it played a factor in it.”

Pollard was one of the Biden supporters who met the president on the tarmac when his plane landed at Raleigh-Durham international airport at about 2am Friday.

Pollard said she would not consider nominating any other candidate but Biden at the convention and had not heard any “serious” talk about doing so, despite many voters, pundits and operatives suggesting that was the Democrats’ only way forward.

Biden played to the North Carolina crowd after he was introduced by the state’s popular and outgoing Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, who at one point was himself mentioned as a possible 2024 presidential candidate.

“I want you to know, I’m not promising not to take Roy away from North Carolina,” Biden said.

One of the hallmarks of Cooper’s time in office has been his negotiation with the state’s Republican-controlled legislature to expand Medicaid coverage last year. Margaret Kimber, a grandmother from Wendell, North Carolina, gave Biden much credit for the expansion as well.

“It helps with the insurance, the supplements are fantastic,” she said while leaning against her walker after the rally. “And without them, whew!”

Pollard also said that Biden’s support of social security and Medicare were some of the most important issues for her.

“The loans are for the next generation. That’s our future coming in,” she said. “But we’re seniors and we’ve invested in this country and we have paid in. And now we just want that. It’s not an entitlement. We paid for it. It’s ours. And President Trump wants to take it.”

Kimber said that the issues that matter most to the young people she knows are school safety and gun violence. She said she thought Trump’s focus on immigration restrictions was just an appeal to fear.

“Because people were pissed off that the borders were open, Trump is using that as a tool to scare the people of the United States, and he’s using scare tactics to make people think that if we don’t close the borders we’re going to be overrun,” Kimber said. “And we’re going to be overrun with guns and violence. And we already have guns and violence.”

Wesley Boykin, who ran as a Democrat for the state legislature in 2022 in rural Duplin county, said that education, safety and healthcare were the issues that drew him most to Biden. Boykin said that as a Black man, he felt fear when Trump was president and no longer has the same fear during the Biden administration.

Boykin also said the Raleigh speech was a welcome departure from what he called a “lackluster” performance by the president on Thursday, especially the first seven minutes.

“I concluded nine o’clock is not the appropriate time,” he said. “After he basically woke up – after that seven minutes – he was more like he was today. And I realized he didn’t get a great deal of sleep.”

Boykin and others said that economic issues were not as important to them in this campaign as issues of character. Biden hit Trump on both fronts, reusing his “morals of an alley cat” line and calling his challenger “Donald ‘Herbert Hoover’ Trump”, after the Republican president who was in office at the onset of the Great Depression.

Tina Bruner, a Democratic precinct secretary in Raleigh and mother of three school-age children, said Biden’s handling of the pandemic demonstrated both his character and what she said was his superior economic policy.

“The way Trump handled the pandemic was terrifying, and I immediately felt like we’re going to make it out of this whenever Joe took over. The vaccine rollout happened and the way school lunches were funded for everyone. I don’t think I could have counted on schoolchildren to be fed by Trump.”

“So, yes, my life definitely felt safer, my family felt safer because of Joe Biden,” she said.