Forget polls or statistical modelling â if you want to know what is going to happen in the US elections, may I suggest consulting the Ivank-a-Meterâ¢? Much complex analysis has gone into the development of my proprietary prediction tool, but the premise is this: the closer Ivanka Trump is to her father, the closer Donald Trump is to the White House.
Both Ivanka and her husband, Jared Kushner, always seem to know which way the wind is blowing: the pair made out like bandits when they were unelected members of the Trump administration. Then, when it felt like the grift may be up, the Saudis gave Kushner billions to invest. Over the last couple of years, Jared has been managing those billions while Ivanka has been walking her extremely white dog, Winter, on the beach and going surfing. Both of them seem to have made sure that there are frequent quotes in the press from âpeople familiar with their thinkingâ, insisting that the pair donât want anything to do with politics ever again.
While âJavankaâ kept their distance from the former president during Trumpâs lows, there are signs Ivanka might be thinking of coming out of political retirement. Last summer, just as Trump started doing well in the polls, Ivanka started being spotted with Dad again. Now that a second Trump term is a serious possibility, an Ivanka comeback is being more prominently teased. A few weeks ago, the media outlet Puck reported that Ivanka is âwarming to the idea of trying to be helpful again ⦠Sheâs not like âHell noâ any more.â Last week, an anonymous âfriend of Ivankaâ told Business Insider that the former first daughter has softened her stance on avoiding politics for ever. While a spokesperson for the couple told Puck these rumours were nonsense, it does feel as though Ivanka is testing the political waters.
And while itâs certainly not a done deal that the US will see a President Trump again, if we do then you can expect the reign to be long. Trump recently floated the idea of a third term if he wins in November, and it is rumoured that Ivanka has harboured dreams of being the first female president. All of which to say: the Ivank-a-Meter is flashing red.
It had been an uneventful journey from Heathrow. After 10 hours in the sky, flight SQ321 from London to Singapore was just a few hours from its destination, above the Irrawaddy Basin in Myanmar, when the aircraft dropped. Passengers said it happened in an instant, with little time to respond to warnings to fasten their seatbelts. The plane descended by 6,000ft (1,800 metres) in just three minutes. Passengers who were not strapped in were launched into the ceiling and across the aisles as the aircraft hit a patch of severe turbulence.
Flight attendants had been serving breakfast at the time. Coffee and cups of water were thrown into the air, people’s phones, shoes and cushions were flung around.
“So many injured people. Head lacerations, bleeding ears. A lady was screaming in pain with a bad back. I couldn’t help her – just got her water,” one passenger, Andrew Davies from London, wrote on social media. There had been very little warning, he said. “The seatbelt sign came on, I put on my seatbelt straight away then the plane just dropped.”
Photographs of the inside of the cabin showed oxygen masks and panels hanging from the ceiling, and the floor covered in food and drinks, with luggage scattered. Patches of blood stained the cabin carpets. One passenger told Reuters overhead plastic panels had been broken by the impact of people’s heads slamming into them.
Jerry, 68, a Briton travelling to Australia for his son’s wedding, told the BBC there was no warning before the plane dropped. “I’d just been to the loo, came back, sat down, a bit of turbulence and suddenly the plane plunged. I don’t know how far, but it was a long way,” he said. He and his wife both hit their heads on the ceiling.
“Some poor people walking around ended up doing somersaults. It was terrible. And then suddenly it stopped and it was calm again.
“The staff did their best to tend to the injured people – there are a lot of them. And some of the staff were injured themselves so did a sterling job,” said Jerry.
Singapore Airlines said the flight had encountered “sudden extreme turbulence over the Irrawaddy basin at 37,000 feet” about 10 hours after departure. The pilot declared a medical emergency and diverted the aircraft. It landed in Bangkok at 3.45pm local time on Tuesday.
A 73-year-old man, named as Geoffrey Kitchen, from Thornbury, Gloucestershire, died in the incident. The retired insurance professional was travelling with his wife to Singapore on their way to a holiday in Australia. According to Thai authorities, he had a heart condition and probably had a heart attack. A total of 71 people, including six with severe injuries, were taken to hospital. Many had head injuries, according to Thai officials.
“Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it,” Dzafran Azmir, a 28-year-old student on board the flight, told Reuters.
After landing in Bangkok, medical teams rushed on to the plane, carrying the most severely injured away on stretchers. The Boeing 777 had been carrying 211 passengers – mostly from Australia, Britain, New Zealand or Singapore – and 18 crew members. Of the 71 people taken for treatment at Samitivej Srinakarin hospital, 26 had minor injuries, 39 moderate injuries and six were severely injured.
Teandra Tukhunen, who was among those being treated at the hospital, and whose left arm was in a sling, told Sky News UK she had been asleep when the turbulence hit.
“I woke up because of the turbulence, and then when they put on the seatbelt sign, pretty much immediately, straight after that I was flung to the roof, before I even had time to put my seatbelt on unfortunately,” Tukhunen, a 30-year-old from Melbourne, said.
“Because it was just so quick they had no warning whatsoever,” she said. “It was just so quick, over in just a couple of seconds and then you’re just shocked.”
She thanked the pilot, who she felt had “saved our lives”, saying: “We’re alive, so that’s all that matters in the end.”
Davies too described airline staff as “stoic”, despite some being injured themselves. “One of the Singapore Airlines crew said it was by far the worst in her 30 years of flying,” he wrote. “Lesson is – wear a seatbelt at all time. Anyone who is injured, was not wearing a seatbelt.”
On Wednesday morning, 131 passengers and 12 crew members arrived in Singapore on a relief flight. Singapore Airlines said it is fully cooperating with authorities. Singapore’s Transport Safety Investigation Bureau said it is investigating the incident, and will be deploying investigators to Bangkok.
Heavy rain could bring flooding and travel disruption across much of the UK on Wednesday and Thursday with an amber warning issued for part of the country.
The Met Office has issued the warning for parts of north Wales and north-west England, including Liverpool and Manchester, for 24 hours from noon on Wednesday.
The warning for the region says flooding and disruption are likely, with rain becoming heavy and persistent.
A yellow warning for rain is in place for the north of England, the Midlands and north and mid-Wales until 6am on Thursday, with the southern edges of the affected area extended to run roughly from around Norwich to Bath.
A yellow rain warning comes into place at noon on Wednesday for Scotland, covering the south and east of the country, which runs until 6pm on Thursday.
A further yellow warning for thunderstorms has been added for much of the south coast of England from 8am to 7pm on Wednesday.
The Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill said: “Some areas are really going to see a lot of heavy, persistent rain through a big chunk of Wednesday. It is going to be a pretty wet picture as we go through the rest of the week for many places.
“There is some uncertainty as to exactly where we are going to see the heaviest rain and where is most likely to be impacted.”
The forecast says heavy and, in places, prolonged rainfall is expected from an area of low pressure arriving from the east, which has brought downpours to parts of central Europe.
Many places could see 30-40mm of rain, while a few areas may receive 60-80mm as heavy rain moves northwards throughout Wednesday. The Met Office said there was a small chance a few upland areas could have up to 150mm.
In addition to the thunderstorm warning, which also includes scattered showers and the threat of spray on the roads and sudden flooding, there may be heavy, thundery showers in the south of England that could bring 30-40mm within three hours.
A Met Office spokesperson said: “The precise track of the low pressure that would determine where the rainfall comes is still uncertain and is something we are keeping an eye on.
“We would encourage people to keep an eye on the forecast over the next couple of days to see how that evolves.”
The chief meteorologist, Andy Page, said areas exposed to the strengthening northerly winds were most likely to have the highest rainfall.
Northern areas are expected to remain cloudy and wet on Thursday but drier further south with brighter conditions becoming more widespread by the end of the week.
Bank Holiday Monday is expected to be dry and fine for much of the country, feeling warm in the sunshine, although there remains the threat of showers ahead of more settled conditions.
The actions of a New Zealand man filmed jumping off a boat in what appears to be an attempt to âbody slamâ an orca have been described as âshockingâ and âidioticâ by the countryâs Department of Conservation.
In a video shared to Instagram in February, a man can be seen jumping off the edge of a boat into the sea off the coast of Devonport in Auckland, in what appears to be a deliberate effort to touch or âbody slamâ the orca, the department said. He leaps into the water very close to a male orca, as a calf swims nearby, while someone on board the boat films it. Others can be heard laughing and swearing in the background.
As he swims back towards the boat he yells âI touched itâ and asks âdid you get that?â He then attempts to touch the orca again.
Hayden Loper, a principal investigator at the department, said the 50-year-old man showed reckless disregard for his own safety and that of the orca. âThe video speaks for itself, it is shocking and absolutely idiotic behaviour,â he said.
The department received a tip-off about the video from a couple of concerned people who had seen the footage on social media. Working with police, the department identified the man and handed him a $600 infringement fine.
âItâs a very clear breach of the Marine Mammals Protection Act. Orca are classified as whales under conservation legislation and it is illegal to swim with, or disturb or harass any marine mammal,â he said.
Loper said often people breach the act by accident, for example taking a jetski too close to a marine mammal, but in this case, âit [was] a real blatant example of stupidityâ.
âFor him to jump into the water deliberately and swim up to the orca [and] to make sure that it was filmed ⦠it defies belief.â
Social media is a double-edged sword when it comes to protecting marine life. On the one hand, it can help alert the department to incidents, but it can also act as a catalyst for poor behaviour.
âIt was a deliberate attempt to get likes and views on social media. Whatâs also really disappointing is not just the actions of the individual but those in the boat â it is almost a bit of a pack mentality and they are encouraging this behaviour.â
New Zealand orca can be found throughout the countryâs coastline, but with a population of just 150-200 they are deemed ânationally criticalâ and face a high risk of extinction.
The orca appeared to escape injury, but Hannah Hendriks, the departmentâs marine technical adviser, said jumping into water on top of any dolphin or small whale could easily damage their sensitive fins.
A person jumping into the water could startle the animal, she said, and cause it to collide with a propeller or keel.
âInteracting with pods can disturb their natural behaviours like resting, feeding, and socialising, which can have long-term impacts on survival and breeding success, while repeated disturbance may lead to animals avoiding an area,â she said.
âIn particular, disturbance of a pod with a calf presents a risk of separation of the calf from the rest of the pod â if the calf is still reliant on its mum for milk, this can end up with the calf starving, stranding, and ultimately dying.â
Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the Kharkiv region near Vovchansk say the situation is “hotter” than it was around fallen Bakhmut, but now they have the shells to fight back. “It’s 24/7, their infantry keeps coming, we keep fighting their attacks. At least we are trying to. Whenever possible, we take them down,” Pavlo, a gunner of Ukraine’s 92nd Separate Assault brigade operating a howitzer, told Reuters. “We were positioned in the Bakhmut area before, now we have been transferred here. It’s much ‘hotter’ here. We didn’t have shells there. Here, at least we have shells, they started delivering them. We have something to work with, to fight.”
The Ukrainian military says it has destroyed the last Russian warship armed with cruise missiles stationed at the Crimean peninsula. “According to updated information, the Ukrainian defence forces hit a Russian project 22800 Tsiklon missile ship in Sevastopol, on the night of May 19,” the military said. Reuters was not able to independently verify the statements. There was no immediate comment from the Russian side. Russia’s defence ministry on Sunday said Ukrainian forces had attacked Crimea with Atacms missiles.
Russian drones struck energy sites early on Wednesday and knocked out power to some parts of Ukraine’s northern Sumy region, regional officials said. The Sumy regional authority said the drones hit targets in the cities of Shostka and Konotop, north-east of Kyiv and near the Russian border. Emergency services were working to restore electricity. Officials have warned of a possible Russian push into Sumy.
Ukrainian troops are achieving “tangible” results against Russian forces in the Kharkiv region but the frontline situation near the cities of Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk and Kurakhove remains “extremely difficult”, said Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. More than 14,000 people have been displaced in recent days from the Kharkiv region, the World Health Organization has said. “Nearly 189,000 more still reside within 25km of the border with the Russian Federation, facing significant risks due to the ongoing fighting,” said Jarno Habicht, the WHO’s representative in Ukraine.
EU countries have formally adopted a plan to fund Ukraine’s defence using profits from $300bn in Russian central bank assets frozen in the EU. Under the agreement, 90% of the proceeds will go into an EU-run fund for military aid for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, with the other 10% going to support the Ukrainians in other ways. The EU expects the assets to yield about €15bn-€20bn in profits by 2027. Ukraine is expected to receive the first tranche in July, EU diplomats have said.
Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, thanked the EU for the decision but reiterated Ukraine’s goal of seizing the assets themselves, not just the interest. The US treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, is meanwhile pushing fellow G7 nations this week to agree a plan to use Russian assets frozen abroad to back a larger loan to help Ukraine. Yellen has said it could be worth up to $50bn to Ukraine.
Russian forces have started military drills near Ukraine simulating the use of tactical nuclear weapons, Pjotr Sauer reports. Vladimir Putin ordered the drills after the French president, Emmanuel Macron, floated the possibility of sending European troops into Ukraine, and the UK foreign secretary, David Cameron, said Ukraine had the right to use weapons supplied by Britain to target sites in Russia.
The former commander of Russia’s 58th army, Ivan Popov, was arrested on suspicion of “large scale fraud”, state-run Tass news agency reported. Popov, military call sign “Spartacus”, commanded Russian units in southern Ukraine. He criticised his superiors about the deaths of Russian soldiers.
More than 3,000 Ukrainian inmates have applied to join the military under a new law. “We predicted this before the adoption of this law,” said Olena Vysotska, deputy minister of justice, adding that more had expressed interest and 20,000 had been identified as eligible. Only prisoners with less than three years to serve can apply. Prisoners not eligible include those found guilty of sexual violence, killing two or more people, serious corruption and former high-ranking officials.
Tens of thousands of Russians who fled to Turkey after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine have moved on to other countries, squeezed by residency issues and soaring costs, Reuters has reported. This month, the number of Russians with Turkish resident permits fell to 96,000, down by more than a third from 154,000 at the end of 2022, official data showed. Many who left Turkey headed to Serbia and Montenegro, Reuters said.
Fani Willis, the Fulton county district attorney overseeing Georgia’s expansive criminal case against Donald Trump and his allies for attempting to overturn the 2020 election, has wonher Democratic primary bid for re-election with nearly 90% of the vote.
Willis and Judge Scott McAfee – who won his primary election on Tuesday – are central figures in the prosecution against the former president and associates in his orbit accused of conspiring to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
Willis will now face Republican lawyer Courtney Kramer in November. With her high name recognition, the advantages of incumbency and a hefty fundraising haul, Willis’s victory in the primary was not terribly surprising.
The most prominent – and sweeping – charge handed down in an indictment by a grand jury in August 2023 alleged Trump and 18 co-defendants violated Georgia’s racketeering law in a criminal conspiracy to unlawfully change the results of the election.
Trump allies, including the attorneys Sidney Powell and Kenneth Chesebro, were also charged with forgery in connection with their efforts to send false pro-Trump electors to represent swing states that had in fact elected Joe Biden.
Willis’s role in pursuing the most comprehensive prosecution against Trump has drawn her intense scrutiny. In March, the prosecutor who Willis hired to lead the case, Nathan Wade, resigned after revelations about a romantic relationship between him and Willis threatened to derail the prosecution.
Last week, the Georgia court of appeals agreed to consider an appeal from Trump’s defense seeking to toss Willis from the case amid the allegations of unethical conduct.
Amid the prosecution, Willis has also faced a barrage of threats and harassment. In May, a California resident was charged with threatening to injure Willis for her role in prosecuting Trump and his allies.
The United Nations has suspended food distribution in the southern Gaza city of Rafah due to lack of supplies and insecurity.
It also said no aid trucks have entered the territory in the past two days via a floating pier set up by the US for sea deliveries, and warned that the $320m (£250m) project may fail unless Israel starts providing the conditions humanitarian groups need to operate safely.
Several hundred thousand people remain in Rafah after the Israeli military launched an intensified assault there on 6 May, but relief agencies say food aid deliveries have been reduced to a trickle.
Abeer Etefa, a spokesperson for the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP), warned that “humanitarian operations in Gaza are near collapse”. She said that if food and other supplies do not resume entering Gaza “in massive quantities, famine-like conditions will spread”.
The main agency for Palestinian refugees, Unrwa, announced the suspension of distribution in Rafah in a post on X, without elaborating beyond citing the lack of supplies. UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said the Unrwa distribution centre and the WFP’s warehouses in Rafah were “inaccessible due to ongoing military operations.”
When asked about the ramification of the suspension of distribution, Dujarric replied: “People don’t eat.”
Etefa said the WFP had also stopped distribution in Rafah after exhausting its stocks. It continues passing out hot meals in central Gaza and “limited distributions” of reduced food parcels in central Gaza, but “food parcel stocks will run out within days”, she said.
The United States has depicted the floating pier it erected on the Gaza coast as a potential route for accelerated deliveries. The first 10 trucks rolled off a ship on to the pier on Friday and were taken to a WFP warehouse. But a delivery on Saturday of 11 trucks was stopped by crowds of Palestinians who took supplies, and only five trucks made it to the warehouse. No further deliveries came from the pier on Sunday or Monday, Etefa said.
She said the problem of people taking supplies from convoys will continue without a consistent flow of aid to assure people “this is not a one-off event.”
“The responsibility of ensuring aid reaches those in need does not end at the crossings and other points of entry into Gaza – it extends throughout Gaza itself,” she said.
The UN agency is now re-evaluating logistics and security measures and looking for alternate routes within Gaza, said Etefa. The WFP is working with the US Agency for International Development to coordinate delivery of food from the new US route.
The warning came as Israel seeks to contain the fallout from a request by the chief prosecutor of the world’s top war crimes court for arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders.
The UN says about 1.1 million people in Gaza – nearly half the population – face catastrophic levels of hunger and that the territory is on the brink of famine.
The crisis in humanitarian supplies has worsened in the two weeks since Israel launched an incursion into Rafah on 6 May, vowing to root out Hamas fighters. Troops seized the Rafah crossing into Egypt, which has been closed since. As of 10 May, only about three dozen trucks made it into Gaza via the nearby Kerem Shalom crossing from Israel because fighting makes it difficult for aid workers to reach it, the UN says.
Israeli officials say they place no restrictions on the amount of aid going through the crossings. Small numbers of aid trucks continue to enter northern Gaza from Israel, but aid groups say they represent just a fraction of the supplies needed.
At the same time, fighting has escalated in northern Gaza as Israeli troops conduct operations against Hamas fighters, who the military says regrouped in areas already targeted in offensives months ago.
One of the main hospitals still operating in the north, Kamal Adwan, was forced to evacuate after it was “targeted” by Israeli troops, the Gaza Health Ministry said. About 150 staff and dozens of patients fled the facility, including intensive care patients and infants in incubators “under fire from shelling”, it said. The Israeli military did not immediately reply to requests for comment.
The nearby Awda hospital has been surrounded by troops the past three days, and an artillery shell hit its fifth floor, the hospital administration said in a statement Tuesday. A day earlier, the international medical aid group Doctors Without Borders said Awda had run out of drinking water.
Half a year after the death of Matthew Perry from acute effects of anesthetic ketamine, the Los Angeles police department (LAPD) and Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) have launched a joint criminal investigation looking into how the Friends star got the prescription medication, law enforcement sources confirmed to the Los Angeles Times on Tuesday.
Perry died at the age of 54 on 28 October 2023 in a hot tub at his Pacific Palisades home. Trace amounts of ketamine, which is sometimes used to treat depression, were found in his stomach, according to the Los Angeles medical examiner.
However, an autopsy found levels of ketamine in his blood similar to levels used during general anesthesia. âAt the high levels of ketamine found in his postmortem blood specimens, the main lethal effects would be from both cardiovascular overstimulation and respiratory depression,â the autopsy report stated.
The autopsy also identified drowning, coronary artery disease and buprenorphine â a drug used to treat opioid addiction, about which Perry discussed openly in interviews and his 2022 memoir â as contributing factors in his death. It was ruled an accident, with no evidence of foul play.
The LAPD and DEA, however, are now looking into how the actor came to possess high levels of ketamine, in his system and in general. TMZ was the first to report the investigation, which is primarily concerned with who provided the drug, and under what circumstances.
According to the medical examiner, Perry was undergoing ketamine infusion therapy for anxiety and depression in the days before his death. His last known infusion was a week and a half prior, meaning the ketamine found in his system in the autopsy was not from the procedure.
In his 2022 memoir Friends, Lovers, and the Big Terrible Thing, Perry discussed his long history with substance abuse, beginning at the age of 14 and intensifying with the huge spotlight while on Friends, which ran on NBC from 1994 until 2004. At one point, he wrote, he was consuming up to five dozen pills a day. He was 19 months sober at the time of his death, according to the medical examiner, who noted that he had no other drugs in his system and that no drugs or drug paraphernalia were found at his house.
The medical examiner also noted that the beloved actor, who once had a two-packs-a-day cigarette habit, suffered from diabetes and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, a group of diseases that can cause airflow blockage and breathing issues.
This is not the first time the federal agents have got involved in a drug-related celebrity death. Following the fatal accidental overdose of Mac Miller in 2018, police arrested and charged Ryan Michael Reavis for selling the rapper counterfeit, fentanyl-laced pills. He was sentenced to 11 years in federal prison in April 2022.
Itâs so hot in Mexico that howler monkeys are falling dead from the trees.
At least 83 of the midsize primates, who are known for their roaring vocal calls, were found dead in the Gulf coast state of Tabasco. Others were rescued by residents, including five that were rushed to a local veterinarian who battled to save them.
âThey arrived in critical condition, with dehydration and fever,â said Dr Sergio Valenzuela. âThey were as limp as rags. It was heatstroke.â
While Mexicoâs brutal heatwave has been linked to the deaths of at least 26 people since March, veterinarians and rescuers say it has killed dozens and perhaps hundreds of howler monkeys.
In the town of Tecolutilla, Tabasco, the dead monkeys started appearing on Friday, when a local volunteer fire-and-rescue squad showed up with five of the creatures in the bed of the truck.
Valenzuela put ice on their limp little hands and feet, and hooked them up to IV drips.
So far, the monkeys appear to be on the mend. Once listless and easily handled, they are now in cages at Valenzuelaâs office. âTheyâre recovering. Theyâre aggressive … theyâre biting again,â he said, noting that was a healthy sign for the usually furtive creatures.
Most arenât so lucky. Wildlife biologist Gilberto Pozo counted about 83 of the animals dead or dying on the ground under trees. The die-off started around 5 May and hit its peak over the weekend.
âThey were falling out of the trees like apples,â Pozo said. âThey were in a state of severe dehydration, and they died within a matter of minutes.â Already weakened, Pozo says the falls from dozens of yards (meters) up inflict additional damage that often finishes the monkeys off.
Pozo attributes the deaths to a âsynergyâ of factors, including high heat, drought, forest fires and logging that deprives the monkeys of water, shade and the fruit they eat.
âThis is a sentinel species,â Pozo said, referring to the canary-in-a-coalmine effect where one species can say a lot about an ecosystem. âIt is telling us something about what is happening with climate change.â
Pozoâs group has set up a special recovery stations for monkeys â it currently holds five monkeys, but birds and reptiles have also been affected â and is trying to organize a team of specialized veterinarians to give the primates the care they need.
By 9 May at least nine cities in Mexico had set temperature records, with Ciudad Victoria, in the border state of Tamaulipas, clocking a broiling 117F (47C).
With below-average rainfall throughout almost all the country so far this year, lakes and dams are drying up, water supplies are running out and authorities have had to truck in water for everything from hospitals to firefighting teams. Low levels at hydroelectric dams have contributed to power blackouts in some parts of the country.
Humans are feeling the heat as well. On Monday, the nationwide chain of OXXO convenience stores â the nationâs largest â said it was limiting purchases of ice to just two or three bags per customer in some places.
Israel has urged what it called ânations of the civilised worldâ to refuse to implement any international criminal court arrest warrants issued against its leaders.
Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor of the worldâs top court, announced on Monday that his office had applied to a pre-trial panel for arrest warrants for three senior Hamas officials, as well as the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his defence minister, Yoav Gallant, for war crimes and crimes against humanity during the Hamas attack of 7 October and the ensuing seven-month-old war in Gaza.
What was widely interpreted in Israel as an equivalence between the named leaders of the Islamist group â Yahya Sinwar, Hamasâs chief in Gaza, Mohammed Deif, the commander of its military wing, and Qatar-based Ismail Haniyeh, leader of the political bureau â and democratically elected Israeli politicians was met with outrage by Israeli officials, the public, and the countryâs allies.
On Tuesday, a government spokesperson, Tal Heinrich, said: âWe call on the nations of the civilised, free world â nations who despise terrorists and anyone who supports them â to stand by Israel. You should outright condemn this step.
âMake sure the ICC understands where you stand. Oppose the prosecutorâs decision and declare that, even if warrants are issued, you do not intend to enforce them. Because this is not about our leaders. Itâs about our survival.â
Khan said on Monday that Israel had the right to defend itself from Hamas, but that it did not âabsolve Israel or any state of its obligation to comply with international humanitarian lawâ.
Whatever Israelâs military goals in Gaza, the prosecutorâs office believed its methods â ânamely, intentionally causing death, starvation, great suffering, and serious injury to body or health of the civilian populationâ â were criminal, he added.
It has been known for some time that Khanâs investigation could result in arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant and military officers. Last month, the Israeli prime minister flew into a public panic over the possibility and appealed to the G7 â and in particular the US, Israelâs most important ally â to intervene in any potential international legal action.
Mondayâs statement from the chief prosecutorâs office nonetheless shocked the Israeli establishment, and has sparked a flurry of diplomatic damage control.
Israel, along with the US, Russia and China, is not a member of the ICC and does not recognise its authority. The 124 states that do, however, are obliged to honour court arrest warrants if they are issued, which could severely curtail the ability of Netanyahu and Gallant to travel abroad.
France, Belgium and Slovenia said on Monday they supported Khanâs decision, while a UK government spokesperson reiterated that London did not believe the ICC had jurisdiction in the case, and the Czech Republic called the prosecutorâs move âappalling and completely unacceptableâ, a clear indication of the westâs growing divisions over approaches to Israel as death and destruction mounts in Gaza.
Israel is also worried about an immediate impact on weapons sales and the defence industry, the possibility of further sanctions if the case goes ahead, and implementing military strategy and judicial changes that may be needed in order to minimise the risk of future charges.
Asked if Netanyahu or Gallant would avoid travelling to ICC-signatory countries if arrest warrants were issued, Heinrich said: âLetâs wait and see.â
On Tuesday, Israelâs foreign minister, Israel Katz, travelled to France in a bid to contain the diplomatic fallout. It is also expected that Israel will encourage US Republicans to reimpose sanctions on ICC officials, and urge ICC-signatory allies to pressure the court into preventing warrants from being issued.
The ICC decided in 2021 that it had a mandate to investigate violence and war crimes committed by Israel and Palestinian factions in events dating back to 2014. Many in Israel have long claimed that the UN and associated bodies are biased against the Jewish state.
No leader of a âwestern-styleâ democracy has ever been issued a warrant. An ICC warrant for Russiaâs president, Vladimir Putin, was declared last year, and other outstanding warrants include the Ugandan warlord Joseph Kony and the former president of Sudan Omar al-Bashir.
Khanâs office has requested the warrants for the Hamas and Israeli suspects from a pre-trial panel of three judges, who take on average two months to consider the evidence and determine if the proceedings can move forward.
In recent visits to the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing into Gaza, Israel and the West Bank, Khan had made clear that the scope of his officeâs investigation would be expanded to include the 7 October attack and its aftermath.
About 1,200 people, mostly civilians, were killed on 7 October, with a further 250 taken hostage, and about 35,000 people have been killed in the war in Gaza, according to the Palestinian health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilian and combatant deaths.
An initial ceasefire and hostage and prisoner swap at the end of November broke down after a week, while several attempts since aimed at a new truce, mediated by the US, Egypt and Qatar, have floundered.
A return to fruitful negotiations seems less likely than ever after earlier this month Israel launched a long-threatened offensive on Rafah, the last corner of the Gaza Strip previously spared ground fighting, where more than 85% of the Palestinian territoryâs population of 2.3 million people had sought shelter.
Food and medical aid deliveries through Rafahâs crossing with Egypt had been suspended due to a lack of supplies and insecurity, the UN agency for Palestinians said on Tuesday.
Fierce fighting continues across the region: Israeli forces operating in Jabalia camp in northern Gaza on Tuesday laid waste to the area with tank and aerial bombardments, residents said, while airstrikes killed at least five people in Rafah.
An Israeli raid in the West Bank city of Jenin on Tuesday killed seven people, including a doctor, local health officials said.