Kamala Harris faced a grilling on Fox News, with host Brett Baier pressing the vice-president on immigration, the economy and the Biden administration in a 30-minute interview on Wednesday night.

The Democratic candidate’s first appearance on the conservative network formed part of a direct appeal to right-leaning voters, after she was joined by more than 100 Republicans at a campaign event in Pennsylvania earlier in the day.

The interview was combative, with Harris, towards the end, speaking over Baier as she asked him to interview her “grounded in full assessment of the facts”, while calling him out for playing clips that she said were not relevant to what they were discussing.

Here are the key takeaways:

More than half the world’s food production will be at risk of failure within the next 25 years as a rapidly accelerating water crisis grips the planet, unless urgent action is taken to conserve water resources and end the destruction of the ecosystems on which our fresh water depends, experts have warned in a landmark review.

Half the world’s population already faces water scarcity, and that number is set to rise as the climate crisis worsens, according to a report from the Global Commission on the Economics of Water published on Thursday.

Demand for fresh water will outstrip supply by 40% by the end of the decade, because the world’s water systems are being put under “unprecedented stress”, the report found.

The commission found that governments and experts have vastly underestimated the amount of water needed for people to have decent lives. While 50 to 100 litres a day are required for each person’s health and hygiene, in fact people require about 4,000 litres a day in order to have adequate nutrition and a dignified life. For most regions, that volume cannot be achieved locally, so people are dependent on trade – in food, clothing and consumer goods – to meet their needs.

Some countries benefit more than others from “green water”, which is soil moisture that is necessary for food production, as opposed to “blue water” from rivers and lakes. The report found that water moves around the world in “atmospheric rivers” which transport moisture from one region to another.

About half the world’s rainfall over land comes from healthy vegetation in ecosystems that transpires water back into the atmosphere and generates clouds that then move downwind. China and Russia are the main beneficiaries of these “atmospheric river” systems, while India and Brazil are the major exporters, as their landmass supports the flow of green water to other regions. Between 40% and 60% of the source of fresh water rainfall is generated from neighbouring land use.

“The Chinese economy depends on sustainable forest management in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and the Baltic region,” said Prof Johan Rockström, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and one of the co-chairs of the commission. “You can make the same case for Brazil supplying fresh water to Argentina. This interconnectedness just shows that we have to place fresh water in the global economy as a global common good.”

Tharman Shanmugaratnam, the president of Singapore and a co-chair of the commission, said countries must start cooperating on the management of water resources before it was too late.

“We have to think radically about how we are going to preserve the sources of fresh water, how we are going to use it far more efficiently, and how we are going to be able to have access to fresh water available to every community, including the vulnerable – in other words, how we preserve equity [between rich and poor],” Shanmugaratnam said.

The Global Commission on the Economics of Water was set up by the Netherlands in 2022, drawing on the work of dozens of leading scientists and economists, to form a comprehensive view of the state of global hydrological systems and how they are managed. Its 194-page report is the biggest global study to examine all aspects of the water crisis and suggest remedies for policymakers.

The findings were surprisingly stark, said Rockström. “Water is victim number one of the [climate crisis], the environmental changes we see now aggregating at the global level, putting the entire stability of earth’s systems at risk,” he told the Guardian. “[The climate crisis] manifests itself first and foremost in droughts and floods. When you think of heatwaves and fires, the really hard impacts are via moisture – in the case of fires, [global heating] first dries out landscapes so that they burn.”

Every 1C increase in global temperatures adds another 7% of moisture to the atmosphere, which has the effect of “powering up” the hydrological cycle far more than would happen under normal variations. The destruction of nature is also further fuelling the crisis, because cutting down forests and draining wetlands disrupts the hydrological cycle that depends on transpiration from trees and the storage of water in soils.

Harmful subsidies are also distorting the world’s water systems, and must be addressed as a priority, the experts found. More than $700bn (£540bn) of subsidies each year go to agriculture, and a high proportion of these are misdirected, encouraging farmers to use more water than they need for irrigation or in wasteful practices.

Industry also benefits – about 80% of the wastewater used by industries around the world is not recycled.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the director general of the World Trade Organization, also a co-chair of the commission, said countries must redirect the subsidies, axing harmful ones while ensuring poor people were not disadvantaged. “We must have a basket of policy tools working together if we are to get the three Es – efficiency, equity and environmental sustainability and justice. Therefore we have to couple the pricing of water with appropriate subsidies,” she said.

At present, subsidies mainly benefit those who are better off, Okonjo-Iweala added. “Industry is getting a lot of the subsidy, and richer people. So what we need are better targeted subsidies. We need to identify the poor people who really need this,” she said.

Developing countries must also be given access to the finance they need to overhaul their water systems, provide safe water and sanitation, and halt the destruction of the natural environment, the report found.

Mariana Mazzucato, professor of economics at University College London, and a co-chair of the commission, said loans made by public sector banks to developing countries should be made conditional on water reforms. “These could be improving water conservation and the efficiency of water use, or direct investment for water-intensive industries,” she said. “[We must ensure] profits are reinvested in productive activity such as research and development around water issues.”

Water problems also had an outsized impact on women and girls, Mazzucato added. “One of our commissioners is Yvonne Aki-Sawyerr, the mayor of Freetown in Sierra Leone. She says most of the rapes and abuse of women actually happen when they’re going to fetch water,” Mazzucato said. “Child mortality, gender parity, the water collection burden, the food security burden – they’re all connected.”

Five main takeaways from the report

The world has a water crisis

More than 2 billion people lack access to safe drinking water, and 3.6 billion people – 44% of the population – lack access to safe sanitation. Every day, 1,000 children die from lack of access to safe water. Demand for fresh water is expected to outstrip its supply by 40% by the end of this decade. This crisis is worsening – without action, by 2050 water problems will shave about 8% off global GDP, with poor countries facing a 15% loss. Over half of the world’s food production comes from areas experiencing unstable trends in water availability.

There is no coordinated global effort to address this crisis

Despite the interconnectedness of global water systems there are no global governance structures for water. The UN has held only one water conference in the past 50 years, and only last month appointed a special envoy for water.

Climate breakdown is intensifying water scarcity

The impacts of the climate crisis are felt first on the world’s hydrological systems, and in some regions those systems are facing severe disruption or even collapse. Drought in the Amazon, floods across Europe and Asia, and glacier melt in mountains, which causes both flooding and droughts downstream, are all examples of the impacts of extreme weather that are likely to get worse in the near future. People’s overuse of water is also worsening the climate crisis – for instance, by draining carbon-rich peatlands and wetlands that then release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Water is artificially cheap for some and too expensive for others

Subsidies to agriculture around the world often have unintended consequences for water, providing perverse incentives for farmers to over-irrigate their crops or use water wastefully. Industries also have their water use subsidised, or their pollution ignored, in many countries. Meanwhile, poor people in developing countries frequently pay a high price for water, or can only access dirty sources. Realistic pricing for water that removes harmful subsidies but protects the poor must be a priority for governments.

Water is a common good

All of human life depends on water, but it is not recognised for the indispensable resource it is. The authors of the report urge a rethink of how water is regarded – not as an endlessly renewable resource, but as a global common good, with a global water pact by governments to ensure they protect water sources and create a “circular economy” for water in which it is reused and pollution cleaned up. Developing nations must be given access to finance to help them end the destruction of natural ecosystems that are a key part of the hydrological cycle.

The US supreme court declined on Wednesday to put on hold a new federal rule targeting carbon pollution from coal- and gas-fired power plants at the request of numerous states and industry groups in another major challenge to Joe Biden’s efforts to combat the climate crisis.

The justices denied emergency requests by West Virginia, Indiana and 25 other states – most of them Republican-led – as well as power companies and industry associations, to halt the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rule while litigation continues in a lower court. The regulation, aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions that drive the climate crisis, took effect on 8 July.

The rule would require existing coal- and new natural gas-fired plants eventually to reduce emissions including by capturing and storing carbon dioxide.

The EPA’s new rule, issued under the landmark Clean Air Act anti-pollution law, was issued two years after a major ruling by the supreme court in 2022 undercutting the agency’s power to issue sweeping regulations to force an electric-generation shift from coal to cleaner energy sources.

The EPA has said efforts to address the climate crisis and its impacts such as extreme weather and rising sea levels must include the power sector because fossil fuel-fired plants make up 25% of overall domestic greenhouse gas emissions.

Notably, the rule mandates that coal plants operating past 2038 and certain new gas plants reduce emissions by 90% by 2032 including by using carbon capture and storage systems that extract carbon dioxide from plant exhaust and sequester it underground.

The EPA has called the technology proven and technically feasible. The rule’s challengers have said it has not been shown effective at the scale predicted by the EPA.

The rule’s requirements are “really a backdoor avenue to forcing coal plants out of existence”, West Virginia, a major coal producer, and other state challengers said in a written filing.

The supreme court’s 2022 ruling was based on what is called the “major questions” legal doctrine embraced by its conservative justices that requires explicit congressional authorization for action on issues of broad importance and societal impact.

The states and certain other challengers contend that the EPA’s new rule likewise implicates a major question and exceeds the agency’s authority.

Numerous states and industry players filed multiple lawsuits challenging the rule in the US court of appeals for the District of Columbia circuit, which on 19 July denied requests to pause the regulation pending its review.

The case did not implicate a major question because the EPA’s actions setting plant limits were “well within” its statutory authority, the DC circuit stated.

Paul Watson, the anti-whaling activist detained in Greenland and awaiting possible extradition to Japan, has appealed to Emmanuel Macron for political asylum in France.

Watson was detained in July after a Japanese request to Interpol over his confrontational tactics aimed at disrupting whaling operations in the Antarctic, and could face up to 15 years in prison if he is extradited and convicted.

His request to the French president was made in a letter several days ago, said Lamya Essemlali, the head of Sea Shepherd France, at a press conference in Paris. Macron has previously expressed his support for Watson and emphasised the importance of the case for environmental advocacy and human rights. There was no immediate comment from Macron’s office on Wednesday.

Essemlali said: “Paul is very attached to France, and it is also the second largest marine territory in the world, which means a lot for ocean conservation. Paul is currently living in France with his family.” She said Watson was “down” and “isolated” but “resilient”.

Jean Tamalet, a lawyer associated with Sea Shepherd France, part of the US-based non-profit conservation activist organisation, emphasised that the call for political asylum was largely symbolic and aimed at securing Watson’s release.

Critics of Watson’s arrest in Greenland have asserted that it stemmed from longstanding political motivations tied to Japan’s whaling practices, which are banned internationally under a 1986 treaty. Japan considers the practices part of its cultural heritage.

For decades, Watson has led high-profile confrontations with whaling ships in the Southern Ocean. The Greenland arrest occurred when Watson’s ship docked in Nuuk for refuelling on its way to intercept a Japanese whaling ship. Danish authorities are reviewing Japan’s request for his extradition.

More than a decade ago, Japan issued a red notice through Interpol. This is not an international arrest warrant but a request for cooperation between member states to locate and detain individuals pending extradition.

In the past, international authorities had paid little attention to the red notice, allowing Watson to travel freely, according to Tamalet, who said: “That has obviously changed.”

The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has laid out details of his “victory plan” in a speech to parliament that acknowledged increasing pressure from allies to negotiate an end to the conflict.

An “unconditional invite” to join Nato is at the heart of the plan he had pitched in private meetings in Washington DC and on a tour of European capitals before unveiling it publicly in Kyiv on Wednesday.

“We heard the word ‘negotiations’ from partners, and the word ‘justice’ much less often,” he admitted to lawmakers. His project was a response to that, he said, offering a chance of “decent peace” for the country.

A commitment to allow Ukraine into Nato would show the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, that his geopolitical plans were “headed for defeat”, Zelenskyy said.

Later on Wednesday, Zelenskiy spoke to Joe Biden, who announced a new $425m (£327m) military aid package, including air defence capability, air-to-ground munitions, armoured vehicles and critical munitions, the White House said in a statement.

Ukraine’s allies have been wary of the conflict expanding since Putin launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022 and began threatening to use nuclear weapons soon after.

The Nato chief, Mark Rutte, gave a muted response to Zelenskyy’s plans, saying that he and allies “take note” of it.

“The plan has many aspects and many political and military issues we really need to hammer out with the Ukrainians to understand what is behind it, to see what we can do, what we cannot do,” Rutte said.

Moscow rapidly denounced Zelenskyy’s proposal as an escalation. “He is pushing Nato into direct conflict with our country,” the foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, told reporters.

Zelenskyy also ruled out conceding territory to Russia, although analysts have said allowing Moscow effective control of some territory seized over nearly three years of war would be needed to halt fighting.

Overall, the vision laid out by Zelenskyy was as much an attempt to shift the global narrative around Ukraine’s future prospects as a strategic military project.

As the full-scale war heads towards its fourth year, Russia has been throwing soldiers and weapons into a slow but consistent advance on the eastern front.

The crisis in the Middle East has diverted funds and diplomatic attention from Ukraine, and if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election next month then Zelenskyy could soon be making his case to a hostile administration in Washington.

Zelenskyy described a Ukraine that could achieve a “just peace” if allies gave it better defence capabilities and a strategic non-nuclear deterrent, and that could then reward those who stood by it with investment opportunities.

Key to Ukraine’s economic potential are strategic mineral deposits that he said were worth trillions of dollars, including uranium, titanium, lithium and graphite, and the country’s rich soil, which produces a significant portion of the world’s wheat.

These were “strategically valuable resources and they will strengthen either Russia and its allies or Ukraine and the democratic world”, Zelenskyy said.

When the war with Russia ended, Ukraine would also have ranks of battle-hardened troops who could strengthen Nato forces in Europe and worldwide, he added.

Zelenskyy also argued that supporting Ukraine was as much self-defence as solidarity, describing a war that was already metastasising beyond Europe, with North Korean soldiers fighting alongside Russians troops for a state deploying Iranian weapons and cheered on by China.

“Russia and its allies want more wars. And that’s a fact. They are learning, and the more time they have to learn … the more the world will have to pay, unfortunately and inevitably, for the right to life, for the right to peace,” he said.

Artem Mazhulin contributed reporting

Florida officials have arrested the man who left his dog tied to a post in floodwaters ahead of Hurricane Milton’s landfall.

Florida state troopers found the dog last week, abandoned on the side of Interstate-75 in Tampa with flood waters up to his chest. The Florida highway patrol shared a video at the time of the bodycam footage and a caption: “Do NOT do this to your pets please … ”

On Monday the former owner, Giovanny Aldama Garcia, 23, of Ruskin, Florida, was arrested for aggravated animal cruelty.

The dog has been renamed from Jumbo to Trooper, the department of highway safety and motor vehicles said. At a news conference on Tuesday, Ron DeSantis said Trooper was currently in Tallahassee and will be adopted.

“The dog was very rattled from that experience,” the Florida governor said. “We said at the time, you don’t just tie up a dog and have them out there for a storm, totally unacceptable, and we’re gonna hold you accountable.”

According to online jail records reviewed by the Guardian, Aldama Garcia was released on a $2,500 cash bond on Tuesday after his Monday arrest. It is unclear when he is due in court for a hearing.

The office of Suzy Lopez, the state attorney who serves the 13th judicial circuit in Tampa and is overseeing this case, said in a news release that Aldama Garcia told investigators he was driving to Georgia to escape the hurricane but left his dog on the side of the road because he couldn’t find anyone to take him.

The dog was eventually rescued after a state trooper, Orlando Morales, got a tip from a driver. By the time he found the dog, the water had risen to the animal’s neck.

According to ABC News, two days later Aldama Garcia went to a local animal shelter to retrieve the dog, bringing pictures as proof of ownership, but the dog turned out to be in a different shelter. Aldama Garcia told them that he’d surrender ownership “if the current foster will take good care and love the dog”, and filled out the required paperwork to give up the dog, according to the affidavit seen by ABC News.

“In Hillsborough county, we take animal cruelty very seriously” Lopez said. “This defendant is charged with a felony and could face up to five years in prison for his actions. Quite frankly, I don’t think that is enough. Hopefully, lawmakers take a look at this case and discuss changing the law to allow for harsher penalties for people who abandon their animals during a state of emergency.”

Lopez also thanked Morales: “He’s an animal lover and father to a rescue dog himself. Thank you for your dedication to all of our residents – including the four-legged ones.”

More than 1,400 vehicles have been seized from drivers who have persistently ignored fines relating to London’s Ulez clean air zone, Transport for London has revealed, with more than £25m being recouped by bailiffs.

Bailiffs working on TfL’s behalf seized 1,429 vehicles in the last year from drivers who had repeatedly ignored penalty charge notices, with £710,000 being raised from the sale of nearly 800 of these cars.

The figures, which cover the 12 months up to the end of July, come a year after the mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, extended the Ulez to cover all 32 London boroughs from a previous zone that covered the area between the capital’s north and south circular roads.

Vehicles that do not meet certain emissions standards and are caught using roads in the zone must pay a £12.50 daily charge, or a fine of up to £180 for non-payment.

If drivers do not pay this penalty it is registered as an unpaid debt and an order is made for recovery. If it remains unpaid, a warrant is issued which allows bailiffs to recover the outstanding debt.

TfL said that in the past 12 months bailiffs had recouped £25.6m from those who refused to pay penalty charge notices. This included one driver who was forced to settle a balance of £16,000 after 45 warrants were issued against them. In another case, a driver saw their vehicle seized to pay off an outstanding balance after ignoring 10 warrants.

TfL has hailed the Ulez expansion as a success, pointing to research showing that it has reduced levels of harmful air pollutants significantly since its introduction, as well as helping with the climate emergency by cutting London’s emissions.

However, the scheme has also faced a strong backlash from some quarters, including owners of non-compliant vehicles refusing to pay fines and others vandalising the cameras that police the zone.

TfL said a significant amount of debt remained outstanding and it was now tripling the number of staff in its investigations to help enforcement agencies target repeat offenders.

While the compliance of a vehicle is based on declared emissions rather than its age, a rule of thumb is that it affects diesels made before 2015 and petrol cars before 2006.

Last month, TfL was forced to refund drivers in Chingford, east London, after its camera had become misaligned and incorrectly charged vehicles outside the Ulez boundary.

In January, the Guardian revealed that hundreds of thousands of EU citizens could have been wrongly fined for driving in the Ulez zone, with five EU countries accusing TfL of illegally obtaining names and addresses of citizens in order to issue fines.

Alex Williams, TfL’s chief customer and strategy officer, said: “The most recent data shows that on average, over 96% of vehicles seen driving in the Ulez are compliant.

“We want to send a clear message to vehicle owners that if you receive a penalty charge for driving in the zone, you should not ignore it. Your penalty will progress to enforcement agents to recover the fines that you owe, and there is a risk that your vehicle and other items of property will be removed.”

The first day of early voting in the battleground state of Georgia saw a record turnout, with 328,000 people casting a vote in person or by mail – more than doubling the previous record of 136,000 in 2020. In that year, Joe Biden became the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992 to win the state – after scraping through with fewer than 12,000 votes.

Winning the state and its 16 electoral college votes gives either candidate a high chance of winning the election overall, according to polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight. The Guardian’s poll tracker as of 10 October has Trump ahead in the state by a point.

The record turnout came as a judge temporarily halted a new rule that requires Election Day ballots to be counted by hand after the close of voting. The hand-count rule was passed by a pro-Trump conservative majority of Georgia’s election board, who said they were attempting to make the election more secure and transparent. Democrats had said the change would sow chaos and delay results.

Here’s what else happened on Tuesday:

• Donald Trump held a campaign event in Atlanta where, after arriving 90 minutes late, he repeatedly mentioned Elon Musk’s support and the products made by his companies including Space X and Tesla. Elon Musk gave around $75m to his pro-Donald Trump spending group in the span of three months, federal disclosures showed on Tuesday, underscoring how the billionaire has become crucial to the Republican candidate’s efforts to win the election.

• Trump defended his protectionist trade policies and other fiscal proposals, dismissing suggestions that they could drive up the federal debt, antagonise allies and harm the US economy in an interview at the Economic Club of Chicago. “To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is ‘tariffs’,” Trump said in an often-combative conversation with John Micklethwait, editor-in-chief of Bloomberg News.

• Kamala Harris defended her record as a prosecutor, pledged to decriminalise marijuana and push for police reform as she aimed to shore up support among Black men in an interview with radio host Charlamagne tha God on Tuesday.

• The Harris Victory Fund, the Democratic candidate’s ‘big-dollar fundraising committee’, raised $633m in the three months from 1 July to 30 September, over a third higher than the amount raised by Biden in the same period in 2020, the New York Times reported

• Democratic vice-presidential nominee, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, on Tuesday unveiled his ticket’s plans to improve the lives of rural voters, as the Harris campaign looked to cut into Trump’s support. The Harris-Walz plan includes a focus on improving rural health care, such as plans to recruit 10,000 new health care professionals in rural and tribal areas through scholarships, loan forgiveness and new grant programs, as well as economic and agricultural policy priorities.

• Robert F Kennedy Jr has suggested he will have significant influence on American agriculture policy if Trump is elected president, the latest in a series of roles he has envisioned for himself in a second Trump administration.

• A judge has rejected a request to require Arizona’s 15 counties to verify the citizenship of 42,000 voters registered only to vote in federal elections in the presidential battleground state, concluding those who sought the checks made their request too close to the election and didn’t have legal standing.

• President Joe Biden said Harris would “cut her own path” once she wins the 2024 election, as he hit the campaign trail to help win over sceptical voters three weeks before Election Day. “Kamala will take the country in her own direction, and that’s one of the most important differences in this election,” he said. “Kamala’s perspective on our problems will be fresh and new. Donald Trump’s perspective old and failed and quite frankly, thoroughly totally dishonest.”

• Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz and Democratic Representative Colin Allred met for their only debate, trading attacks over abortion and immigration in a closely watched race that could help determine which party wins control of the US Senate. Allred addressed the 6 January storming of the Capitol, at which he was present, saying “when that mob came” Cruz, who had said he would object to the certification of the results, “was hiding in a supply closet.”

• The estate of Leonard Cohen issued a cease and desist order to Trump, after a recording of Rufus Wainwright singing Cohen’s song Hallelujah was played at a bizarre campaign event. Wainwright also condemned Trump’s use of the song at the town hall in Oaks, Pennsylvania. The song was one of a number Trump played during a Q&A session, in which numerous audience members needed medical attention amid high temperatures.

Fossil fuels could soon become significantly cheaper and more abundant as governments accelerate the transition to clean energy towards the end of the decade, according to the International Energy Agency.

The world’s energy watchdog has signalled a new energy era in which countries have access to more oil, gas and coal than needed to fuel their economic growth, leading to lower prices for households and businesses.

The Paris-based agency’s influential annual outlook report found that energy consumers could expect some “breathing space” from recent spikes in global oil and gas prices triggered by geopolitical upheavals because investment in new fossil fuel projects has outpaced the world’s demand.

Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, said the report confirms its prediction that the world’s fossil fuel consumption will peak before 2030 and fall into permanent decline as climate policies take effect. But continuing investment in fossil fuel projects will spell falling market prices for oil and gas, the IEA added.

“I can’t say whether or not we will see [oil prices of] $100 a barrel again, but what I can say is that despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East we are still seeing oil prices in the $70s,” he said.

Oil prices dipped below $74 on Tuesday amid growing concern about weak Chinese demand.

The IEA acknowledged that the potential for near-term disruption to oil and gas supply remains, due to conflict in the Middle East, which risks disrupting exports of crude and gas from the region. But its long-term view shows an “easing in underlying market balances” and “lower prices on the horizon”, it said.

By the end of the decade, global oil prices could plateau at $75 to $80 a barrel, according to the IEA’s central forecast, compared with an average price of just over $100 a barrel in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The price of gas imported into the EU is also expected to plunge from a record average high of over $70 (£54) per million British thermal units (MBtu) in 2022 to $6.50 (£5) by the end of the decade, following a boom in planned gas projects in recent years, according to the IEA.

Investment in exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) via ships boomed in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which drastically cut pipeline imports of Russian gas into Europe. The IEA estimates that the world’s LNG capacity will grow by almost 50% by 2030, greater than the world’s forecast demand in all three of the agency’s modelled scenarios.

The world’s rising production of crude oil from new oil projects in the US, Canada and South America could mean that future supplies will outstrip global oil demand growth because China, the world’s biggest oil importer, is “wrong-footing” major oil producers by shifting rapidly towards electric vehicles, the IEA said.

“China has been the engine of oil market growth in recent decades, but that engine is now switching over to electricity,” the IEA said.

Electric vehicles currently have a share of about 20% of all new car sales worldwide, which could rise to 50% by 2030 under the IEA’s central forecast scenario, a level already achieved in China this year. This would erode the world’s demand for oil by about 6m barrels of oil a day, according to the IEA.

The “new world” for energy consumers will be more comfortable economically, Birol said, but he warned that the shift will require green alternatives, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, to become cheaper too if they hope to compete against more affordable fossil fuels.

The IEA has predicted that the surge in demand for clean electricity sources will accelerate further in the years ahead, adding the equivalent of Japan’s power demand to the world’s total electricity use each year in a scenario based on today’s policy settings. This demand would rise even more quickly if governments set new policies that align with the global goal of achieving net zero emissions, the IEA said.