Russia-Ukraine war: Doubts cast over Kyiv claim that Russia launched intercontinental ballistic missile – as it happened | Ukraine

Western official denies Ukrainian claim that Russia fired an ICBM – reports

A western official, speaking to ABC News in the US, has denied the Ukrainian claim that an ICBM was used by Russia overnight.

The network reports “It was instead a ballistic missile, which was aimed at Dnipro, in Ukraine’s southeast, the western official said.”

More details soon …

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Key events

Summary of the day

  • A western official has cast doubt on a Ukrainian claim that Russia fired an ICBM for the first time during the war, targeting the city of Dnipro, but Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has insisted the speed and altitude of the missile matched the characteristics of an ICBM

  • Nine projectiles were launched at enterprises and critical infrastructure in Dnipro between 5am and 7am local time from the Astrakhan region of Russia, the air forces said, meaning that, if confirmed, the missile probably travelled about 500 miles (800km) to reach its target. The missile was said to have hit “without consequences” Ukraine’s air force said

  • Russia has not officially acknowledged the use of an ICBM, and its defence ministry omitted any reference to it in its daily briefing

  • The UK prime minister’s spokesperson has said British intelligence services are “urgently” looking into the reports

  • In Ukraine Zelenskyy has attended a commemoration ceremony dedicated to those killed during the 2013-2014 Euromaidan protests, which started on 21 November 2023

  • The head of Dnipropetrovsk region, Serhii Lysak, said 17 people were wounded in a Russian strike on Kryvyi Rih

  • The defence ministers of South Korea and Japan have both condemned North Korea’s dispatch of troops to Russia during talks on Thursday

  • The EU’s top official on migration has said she is concerned about the security implications of nearly half a million visas that were issued to Russian citizens to visit Europe in 2023

  • Hungary announced overnight it is to install an air defence system in the north-eastern part of the country as the threat of an escalation of the Ukraine-Russia war is “greater than ever”, its defence minister said

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Zelenskyy says Ukraine investigating missile after speed and altitude indicated it was an ICBM

In a statement on social media Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that the speed and altitude of a missile fired at Dnipro had indicated it was an ICBM, but said “examinations are now under way.”

In the message, posted to coincide with the anniversary of the 21 November beginning of the Euromaidan protests in 2013, Zelenskyy described Russia as Ukraine’s “crazy neighbour”, saying:

[Putin] is so afraid that he is already using new missiles. And he is looking around the world for other places to find weapons: now in Iran, now in North Korea.

It is obvious that Putin is using Ukraine as a training ground. It is obvious that Putin is afraid when there is simply a normal life around him. When people just have dignity. When the country simply wants to be and has the right to be independent.

Putin is doing everything he can to prevent his neighbour from slipping out of his hands. And I thank all Ukrainian men, all Ukrainian women who protect Ukraine from this evil – steadfastly, bravely, firmly. Worthily. This is one of the main words about Ukraine – dignity. And this is a word that will probably never be said about Russia.

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Downing Street: UK intelligence services looking ‘urgently’ at Ukrainian claim Russia fired an ICBM

The UK prime minister’s spokesperson has said British intelligence services are “urgently” looking into reports that Russia launched an ICBM at Ukraine during an attack on Dnipro.

The claim was made by Ukraine’s military. Russia has yet to confirm or deny the report, but a western official, speaking to ABC News, has cast doubt on the claim.

It would have been the first time an ICBM was fired during war. The missiles have ranges of about 6000km, in order to allow Russia and the US to strike at each other directly. If it had been fired from the Astrakhan region of Russia, it would have travelled about 500 miles (800km) to reach its target.

Speaking anonymously but on the record, the spokesperson for Keir Starmer said:

As you will understand it is a rapidly developing situation and I don’t want to get ahead of our intelligence services who are looking at these reports urgently, but if true, clearly this would be another example of grave, reckless and escalatory behaviour from Russia and only serves to strengthen our resolve.

PA Media reports that asked if they could confirm reports UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles had been fired into Russia by Ukraine, the spokesperson said: “It is still the case that we are not going to comment on operational matters. That will only serve president Putin.”

Defence secretary John Healey made a similar point earlier when he also refused to be drawn on the question when asked by MPs during a defence select committee appearance.

Speaking in the House of Commons, Starmer on Thursday promised that the UK “will back Ukraine with what is needed for as long as it’s needed.”

He told MPs:

UK support for Ukraine is always for self-defence. It is proportionate, coordinated and agile and a response to Russia’s own actions, and it is in accordance with international law under Article 51 of the UN Charter. Ukraine has a clear right of self-defence against Russia’s illegal attacks.

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Pjotr Sauer

Pjotr Sauer

Pavel Podvig, a leading expert on Russian nuclear weapons, said there was not yet enough information to determine whether the weapon used was an ICBM or not.

“One must be skeptical and cautious,” he posted on Bluesky. Using an ICBM would not make military sense because of their low accuracy and high cost, he added, though he wrote “this kind of a strike might have a value as a signal”.

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Pjotr Sauer

Pjotr Sauer

Russia has not officially acknowledged the use of an intercontinental ballistic missile, with the country’s defence ministry omitting any reference to it in its daily briefing.

The country’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova appeared to inadvertently reveal some details about the early morning strike during a live press briefing on Thursday.

A hot mic captured Zakharova’s phone conversation with an unidentified caller, who instructed her not to comment “on the ballistic missile strike.” Notably, the caller did not use the word intercontinental.

In the brief telephone exchange – footage of which at present remains available on the foreign ministry’s official account on X – the caller also appears to disclose that the strike targeted the Yuzhmash military facility in Dnipro.

An agreement between the US and Russia, signed in 2000, in theory provides that each side should notify the other at least 24 hours ahead of any planned missile launch in excess of 500km, greater than the distance involved. It is unclear if any such notification was made.

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In Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has attended a commemoration ceremony dedicated to those killed during the 2013-2014 Euromaidan protests, which started on 21 November 2023.

Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy commemorates at the monument in Kyiv. Photograph: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Reuters
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The head of Dnipropetrovsk region, Serhii Lysak, has updated the number of people injured in Kryvyi Rih to 17. An administration building and two residential buildings were reportedly hit in a Russian strike.

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Also in parliament in London today, defence secretary John Healey has been appearing before defence select committee, where he refused to be drawn on whether the UK had given approval for the use of Storm Shadow missiles against targets on Russian soil.

He told the committee:

This is a serious moment that I come before the committee. Defence intelligence will reveal today that the front line is now less stable than at any time since the early days of the full scale Russian invasion in February 2022.

And we’ve seen in recent weeks a very clear escalation from Putin and his forces. They’ve stepped up attacks on the energy system in Ukraine ahead of winter. They’ve stepped up attacks on civilian centres, killing children. [And] they’ve deployed at least 10,000 North Korean troops to the battle.

Be in no doubt that the UK government is stepping up our support for Ukraine, is determined to continue doubling down our support for Ukraine, and this is what I told [Ukraine’s defence minister Rustem] Umarov in a long call on Tuesday.

And as I told you and the house yesterday, it holds for this committee as well, I won’t be drawn on the operational details of the conflict. It risks operational security, and in the end, the only one that benefits from such a public debate is President Putin.

You can watch the full clip of his answer on Ukraine here:

John Healey avoids question on whether UK approved Storm Shadow use in Russia – video

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What is an ICBM?

Dan Sabbagh’s report this morning on the Ukrainian claim – dismissed by one western official – that Russia used an ICBM against Dnipro includes this detail about ICBMs and their historical development. He writes:

Russian ICBMs have ranges of more than 6,200 miles, in theory enough to reach the US east coast from Astrakhan, and are capable of being nuclear armed, suggesting that if the use of the weapon is confirmed it was a signal from Moscow.

ICBMs were developed in the 1950s, at the height of the cold war, as a way for the Soviet Union and the US to threaten each other’s populations directly with nuclear weapons. Congressional research estimates that Russia has 326 ICBMs in its nuclear arsenal, but no country had fired one in a war before.

As Associated Press has also noted, the range of an ICBM “would seem excessive for use against Ukraine”. Ukrainian media sources have claimed to identified the type of missile used as a RS-26 Rubezh, with a range of 5,800km. Astrakhan and Dnipro are about 700km apart.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on the specific ICBM reports at his daily press briefing, but ABC News has reported that a western official has described the claim as an exaggeration, stating the weapon used was in fact a shorter-range ballistic missile, similar to the types used repeatedly by Russia against Ukraine during the war.

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Starmer: UK support of Ukraine is ‘proportionate’ and in accordance with international law

The UK prime minister has reiterated to parliament in London that the country “will back Ukraine with what is needed for as long as it’s needed.”

Keir Starmer told MPs:

We have consistently said we will do what it takes to support Ukraine and put it in the best possible position going into the winter. UK support for Ukraine is always for self defence.

It is proportionate, co-ordinated and agile and a response to Russia’s own actions, and it is in accordance with international law under Article 51 of the UN Charter.

Ukraine has a clear right of self defence against Russia’s illegal attacks.

So, I say again, Russia could roll back their forces and end this war tomorrow, but until then, we will stand up for what we know is right, for Ukraine’s security and for our own security, and we will back Ukraine with what is needed for as long as it’s needed.

Starmer said that he was proud of parliament that it had shown unified cross-party support for Ukraine for over 1,000 days of the conflict.

The recently installed leader of the Conservative opposition party, Kemi Badenoch, said:

Ukraine is in a fight for its survival, and the people of Ukraine are in our thoughts daily. But those thoughts must translate into action, action from us and from our allies. We will work with the government to ensure British support for Ukraine is steadfast and continues.

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Suspilne, Ukraine’s state broadcaster, reports that 15 people, including two children, have been wounded in Kryvyi Rih. The sound of explosions was reported there about two hours ago.

More details soon …

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Western official denies Ukrainian claim that Russia fired an ICBM – reports

A western official, speaking to ABC News in the US, has denied the Ukrainian claim that an ICBM was used by Russia overnight.

The network reports “It was instead a ballistic missile, which was aimed at Dnipro, in Ukraine’s southeast, the western official said.”

More details soon …

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Kremlin: Russia seeks to avid nuclear war but west has responsibility to avoid ‘provocative actions’

Kremlin spokesperson Dimtry Peskov has said Russia is committed to avoiding nuclear war, but the west has a responsibility not to engage in “provocative actions.”

Tass quotes him, in his daily media briefing, saying:

We have emphasised in the context of our nuclear doctrine that Russia takes a responsible position in terms of making maximum efforts to prevent such a [nuclear] conflict. We expect that other countries will also take the same responsible position and not engage in provocative actions.

Ukraine this week used US and British manufactured longer-range missiles inside Russia for the first time. Earlier this week Vladimir Putin approved a revised Russian nuclear doctrine, which included the provision that if a non-nuclear power attacked Russia with the assistance of a nuclear power, that would meet the threshold for a nuclear response.

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The defence ministers of South Korea and Japan have both condemned North Korea’s dispatch of troops to Russia during talks on Thursday, Reuters reports Seoul’s defence ministry said in a statement.

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British MP and leader of the Reform UK party Nigel Farage has questioned whether it is the right decision to allow Ukraine to use longer-range British and US-manufactured weapons, saying “the idea Ukraine is going to win, frankly, is for the birds.”

Farage, who has repeatedly allied himself with US president-elect Donald Trump, told viewers of the GB News channel:

In the last few days, British long range Storm Shadow missiles have been fired very deep into Russia. The same has happened with American missiles.

Farage said “I do wonder, right at this time whether it’s the wise thing to do,” contining:

In Westminster … everybody still seems to think that we give Ukraine enough weaponry that somehow they’re going to win this war.

I worry, because I think the idea Ukraine is going to win, frankly, is for the birds. I think the war has gone on for long enough and that the casualties are massive. I think all we’re doing is helping to prolong a stalemate.

Farage questioned whether the change of strategy fitted with the plans of the incoming US administration, telling viewers of the GB News channel:

Donald Trump, in 59 days’ time, will be in the White House. He is committed to negotiating a peace settlement. No one quite knows what that might look like, but that is what he’s committed to do. Is the use of American and British long-range missiles going to help him in that process or make it more difficult?

Earlier this year Farage said Nato and the EU had provoked the conflict in Ukraine.

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EU commissioner ‘concerned’ about security implications of Russian visas

Jennifer Rankin

Jennifer Rankin

Jennifer Rankin is the Guardian’s Brussels correspondent

The EU’s top official on migration has said she is concerned about the nearly half a million visas that were issued to Russian citizens to visit Europe in 2023.

Ylva Johansson, who is standing down as the EU’s migration and home affairs commissioner at the end of the month, told journalists the guidelines might need to be “a bit sharper”

In 2023 the states in Europe’s border-free Schengen zone issued 448,890 visas to Russian nationals.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU froze a visa-facilitation deal with Moscow that has resulted in a 90% fall in visas issued to Russian nationals, when compared with 2019, before Covid disrupted international travel.

Johansson said the number of visas issued in 2023 was “a significant number [and] that concerns me”. She is worried about potential security threats, in the context of growing reports of sabotage and espionage, such as arson attacks, the posting of incendiary devices and an assassination plot targeting the head of a German defence company.

In 2023, Italy, France, Spain and Greece, countries with large tourism industries, processed more than 80% of visa applications from Russia.

Johansson said she had initiated a review of the Russian visa guidelines, although it would fall to her successor, Magnus Brunner, to make a decision.

Her review, she said, would need to find out whether member states implemented the guidelines in the same way. She suggested changes could be likely: “Does this call for, you know, some revision? That’s my guess. But it’s for my successor to decide, of course, after we have finalised this assessment.”

The Swedish commissioner has also been investigating complaints from EU member states that Hungary is undermining European security, following Budapest’s decision to make it easier for Russians and Belarussians to obtain work permits, which grants them access to the entire Schengen zone.

Hungary, she said, had “clarified” most of the commission’s questions and it seemed “very, very few people” were using this new scheme. But she added: “I still think, for political reasons, it is the wrong signal to send.”

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Russian air defences shot down two British Storm Shadow cruise missiles, Russia’s defence ministry said on Thursday, according to news agency Interfax.

It comes after Ukraine fired British Storm Shadow missiles into Russia for the first time on Wednesday, as confirmed by The Guardian yesterday.

The Kremlin declined to comment on those strikes, saying that it was a question for the Russian military.

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Cop29 climate finance deal hits fresh setback as deadline looms | Cop29

Hopes of a breakthrough at the deadlocked UN climate talks have been dashed after a new draft of a possible deal was condemned by rich and poor countries.

Faith in the ability of the Azerbaijan presidency to produce a deal ebbed on Thursday morning, as the draft texts were criticised as inadequate and providing no “landing ground” for a compromise.

Instead of setting a global goal for at least $1tn in new funds for developing countries to tackle the climate crisis, the text contained only an “X” where numbers should have been.

Oscar Soria, a director at the Common Initiative thinktank, said: “The negotiating placeholder ‘X’ for climate finance is a testament of the ineptitude from rich nations and emerging economies that are failing to find a workable solution for everyone.

“This is a dangerous ambiguity: inaction risks turning ‘X’ into the symbol of extinction for the world’s most vulnerable. Without firm, ambitious commitments, this vagueness betrays the Paris agreement’s promise and leaves developing nations unarmed in their fight against climate chaos.”

The governments of almost 200 countries are meeting in Azerbaijan to thrash out a new global settlement on climate finance, to channel funds to developing countries to help them shift to low-carbon economies and cope with the impact of extreme weather.

Ministers and high-ranking officials have embarked on intense shuttle diplomacy as the two weeks of fraught talks enter their final days. The Cop29 summit is scheduled to end on Friday night, but on Thursday morning the various positions of developed and developing countries looked as far apart as ever.

The long-awaited draft texts, published shortly after 7am local time, covered all the main aspects of a possible deal at Cop29. Chief among them was a text on the “new collective quantified goal”, which should set out the amount of money developing countries can expect in climate finance, and the proportion of that which should come directly from rich world governments.

Developing countries want at least $1tn a year in climate finance, a large proportion of which should come directly from the rich in the form of grants, with some loans and potentially some private sector finance making up the remainder.

But instead of clear numbers, the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) text contained two options that were described by insiders as “extreme positions” with little compromise.

Some countries privately say that Saudi Arabia and the two blocs through which it acts at Cops – the Arab Group and the Like-Minded Developing Countries – are trying to wreck prospects of a deal.

One of the texts published on Thursday covers “mitigation”, which in UN parlance always means curbing greenhouse gas emissions. Last year, at the Cop28 summit in Dubai, countries passed a resolution to “transition away from fossil fuels”, the first time in 30 years of talks that such a commitment had been made.

That was opposed by Saudi Arabia, which has since attempted to unpick the commitment, alleging it was “an option” rather than a goal. Last week, in the early stages of this “conference of the parties” (Cop), Saudi Arabia and its allies tried to sideline a planned reaffirmation of this commitment, in a fight over what should be on the agenda for the meeting.

In the “mitigation” text, the “transition away from fossil fuels” is absent. This is unacceptable to many developed and developing countries, which want to build on the hard-won progress made last year rather than have it reversed.

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Questions are being asked inside the negotiating halls over whether Azerbaijan is exerting enough control over the negotiations, or leaning too far towards the countries that do not want a robust deal.

Many civil society groups laid the blame on developed countries. Joseph Sikulu, the Pacific director of 350.org, said: “We hoped to see a draft text today that would show rich nations putting their money where their mouth is and responding to the demands from the global south.

“What we got is a text with no clear grant-based core money. Nothing less than $1tn in grants per year will be enough to see those most impacted by climate change on a just transition towards a safe, equitable future. Rich countries must stop dithering, and start delivering – this is not charity, it’s time for them to pay their debt.”

Developed countries are likely to offer a much lower amount in direct financial assistance, probably about $200bn to $300bn, with the remainder of the $1tn to be made up of new forms of funding, such as fossil fuel taxes and private sector investment.

They are also insisting that countries such as China, with a robust economy and large greenhouse gas emissions, and petro-states, such as Saudi, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, should contribute to the financial assistance for poorer countries. Those countries are still classed as developing under the Paris agreement, based on divisions set out in its parent treaty, the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, meaning they are eligible to receive climate finance funds, with no obligation to contribute towards them.

The EU climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, said the draft text was “clearly unacceptable as it stands”.

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‘The land is tearing itself apart’: life on a collapsing Arctic isle | Arctic

Last summer, the western Arctic was uncomfortably hot. Smoke from Canada’s wildfires hung thick in the air, and swarms of mosquitoes searched for exposed skin. It was a maddening combination that left researchers on Qikiqtaruk, an island off the north coast of the Yukon, desperate for relief.

And so on a late July afternoon, a team of Canadian scientists dived into the Beaufort Sea, bobbing and splashing in a sheltered bay for nearly two hours. Later, as they lay sprawled on a beach, huge chunks of the island they were studying slid into the ocean.

“The land was giving us hints of what was to come,” says Richard Gordon, a senior ranger “Days before, we found all these puddles of clear water. But it hadn’t rained at all in days; you look up and see nothing but blue sky.

“Now we know: all of that ice in the permafrost had melted. The signs were there. We just didn’t know.”

Time-lapse video of a land giving way and slipping down a slope over two weeks
A time-lapse video taken by Team Shrub ecologists of a landslip taking place over two weeks

Over the next two weeks, the landslides happened again and again. Throughout the small island, the tundra sheared off in more than 700 different locations. Some collapses were quick, soil ripping from the land with a damp thunderclap. Others were slow, with land “rippling and rolling like a carpet” down the slope, says Isla Myers-Smith, an ecology professor at the University of British Columbia.

In one case, the team was devastated to learn that one of their monitoring sites, where the data they collected had given a three decade-long glimpse into the island’s shifting ecology, had vanished into the ocean.

“Each time you lose a dataset, you lose understanding of how the island is changing,” says Myers-Smith. “It’s hard not to get emotionally invested in the work you do and in this place because you know you’re studying and witnessing irreversible changes.”

For more than a decade, Myers-Smith and her “Team Shrub” graduate students have studied those dramatic changes unfolding on Qikiqtaruk (also known as Herschel Island).

Armed with a fleet of drones and working closely with Indigenous Inuvialuit rangers, the team has revealed a rapid reshaping of the tundra with little precedent. As they race to understand what those changes might mean, a combination of rising seas, landslides and flooding mean the landscape is literally collapsing around them, making it harder to study an island that reflects the tumultuous future of the western Arctic.

Lying just off the Canadian mainland, Qikiqtaruk is a mass of sediment and permafrost piled up during the last ice age. Despite its small size, the island is packed with immense ecological richness, with waters teeming with beluga whales and trout-like Dolly Varden char. On land, it is one of the few places on Earth where black, grizzly and polar bears cross paths. Musk ox and caribou browse the lichen. The land is thickly carpeted with more than 200 species of wildflowers, grasses and shrubs.

Drone footage of the island seen from the Beaufort Sea, with ice floes and fragmented pack ice
Drone footage of Qikiqtaruk in July, as pack ice fragments on the Beaufort Sea and the midnight sun grazes the horizon. Credit: Ciara Norton

For the Inuvialuit, the island continues to be a hunting and fishing ground that for nearly a thousand years sustained communities through dark and bitter winters.

When they negotiated a land claim agreement with the Canadian government in 1984, Inuvialuit elders used their new powers to protect Qikiqtaruk by establishing the Herschel Island–Qikiqtaruk territorial park, fearful that industry and outsiders would destroy a place that held deep cultural value.

When he was a child, Gordon’s family would make the multi-day trek to Qikiqtaruk in a small boat, crossing hundreds of kilometres of brackish delta. He spent summers on the island, running through the remains of weather-beaten buildings, built during the region’s whaling era at the turn of the last century.

Returning with a cohort of elders before the agreement, he saw “how meaningful the land was, how intertwined it was with our oral histories, our culture; I understood the power it had”, Gordon says. “I understood why they wanted so much for it to be protected.”

While the elders envisioned a space protected from destructive outside forces, in two decades as park ranger at Herschel Island–Qikiqtaruk territorial park, Gordon has watched as the island has morphed into something unrecognisable.

Drone footage of huts on flat tundra with the sea inundating the settlement and people wading through water and walking along duckboards
The camp during August’s floods. The boardwalks no longer extend far enough to keep up with the water levels, so hip waders are the footwear of choice. Yukon government conservationists have been moving the buildings to the highest points of land as the waters rise. Credit: Ciara Norton

In early August the first faint blush of autumn is visible in the shrubs of the tundra. Taking advantage of a brief window of favourable weather, Myers-Smith and a group of researchers pile into a helicopter, to be dropped off throughout Qikiqtaruk to monitor its changes, deploying trail cameras, scouring wetlands and piloting drones. The work is tiring and often pushes late into the night. They sometimes eat dinner close to midnight, enjoying the pink hues of a sky where the sun does not fully set.

The team’s research has shown an island ecosystem in rapid flux: the tundra is “greening” at an incredible rate as shrubs such as willow push north and grow taller. In doing so, they push out the cottongrass, mosses and lichens that take hundreds – sometimes thousands – of years to grow.

Buoyed up by higher temperatures and lengthened growing seasons, the number and diversity of plants will keep growing, Myers-Smith says. This is seemingly a bright spot amid a global biodiversity crisis: more plants and animals are making the tundra their home.

And yet a lush, greening Arctic will come at a cost: upending the lives of animals that rely on seasonal rhythm and predictability. Herds of caribou are among the most likely casualties, as bare spots on the tundra, favoured by the lichen that they like to eat, are overtaken by shrubs. The American golden plover, a shorebird that flies yearly from the Arctic to the southern reaches of South America, will find its habitat disappearing as plants grow thicker, crowding out the bald patches of land it prefers.

“It’s one thing to think about what the changes mean to us, but I can’t imagine the fear and stress the animals feel as everything changes so fast,” says Gordon. “We’re supposed to be the guardians of the land. But we’ve let them down.”

Qikiqtaruk is now pockmarked with half-moon shaped craters. Known as thaw slumps, they occur when the underlying permafrost has melted to the point that it can no longer support the soil and the ground collapses.

Drone footage of scars on the landscape from dramatic soil erosion, some looking like craters
Views of Slump D, one of the Arctic’s largest thaw slumps. It is growing rapidly as the rate of melting ice accelerates, cutting into the landscape by up to 20 metres a year. Credit: Isla Myers-Smith

Permafrost thaws across the globe are destroying housing and infrastructure, and disrupting ecosystems. These slumps are also harbingers of a cascading environmental catastrophe: there is twice as much carbon locked up in permafrost as in the atmosphere.

One of the world’s largest thaw slumps is Slump D, on Qikiqtaruk. Inside it, bumblebees bounce between mastodon flowers (also known as marsh fleawort). The whine of mosquitoes reaches the same pitch as the research drones overhead. Melt water gurgles through silty channels, creating a viscous mud that has claimed many rubber boots from Team Shrub. Every few hours, a lump of earth tears away from the overhanging cliff and falls to the ground below.

Video footage of a polar beer walking, a caribou disturbing birds as it runs, and a small wading bird standing amid white and purple flowers on windswept grass
A polar bear passes the settlement as it walks along the beach near camp; although polar bears are seen less frequently along the coast in the summer as they follow the pack ice northwards, one bear spent about a week on the island in July. A caribou scatters shorebirds as it runs to escape the mosquitoes. A Baird’s sandpiper calls amid the flowering tundra. Credit: Isla Myers-Smith

Increasingly, chunks of land hundreds of metres wide will rip away – a phenomenon known as active layer detachment. Unlike other types of permafrost, with high levels of rock or soil, Qikiqtaruk’s permafrost is disproportionately made of ice, making it uniquely susceptible to immense and powerful geological forces when that ice melts.

“It feels like we’re at the frontier of change on this island, where the fabric of the landscape itself is tearing apart,” says Ciara Norton, a Team Shrub research assistant. “These massive permafrost disturbance events are going to continue to happen – and yet we don’t really know what that means.”

One thing is clear: the constant landslides are the latest in a string of challenges that have made studying the island increasingly difficult. Bush planes cannot land on Qikiqtaruk when puddles of seawater are present – and they have become a near-constant presence on the low-lying gravel airstrip. Fog smothers the cove and grounds helicopters for days. Unpredictable storms keep boats away. In mid-August this year, Team Shrub was trapped on the island for an extra 12 days.

  • The research team monitors changes on the island, from wetlands to insect life and flowering cycles, to understand what is happening. Their finds included the northernmost dragonfly ever observed in the Yukon territory, in October. Photographs: Leyland Cecco and Isla Myers-Smith

Norton’s education in the sciences has been overcast by a looming sense of climate anxiety. “Raw discovery alone isn’t enough – the research needs to happen in the context of people affected by all of this,” she says.

“We’re tracking all of the changes in the land to understand why this is happening. And it matters. But the other part of me really feels for the island, a place that people are supposed to visit and experience.”

The vast troves of data collected by scientists are a key part of understanding what’s happening, says Gordon. “But we’re losing traditional knowledge by not spending as much time on the land. It’s hard and expensive to get out here, so fewer people visit the island. And so all of this work, who is it all for?

“It was protected so that people could come here and experience it. But often those same people are making things worse. Every time someone takes a step on this land, they experience something powerful – and yet make a landslide more likely to happen.”

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Melbourne teen Bianca Jones dies in hospital after suspected methanol poisoning in Laos | Australia news

Melbourne teen Bianca Jones has died in a Thai hospital, a week after a suspected methanol poisoning incident in neighbouring Laos that affected her and her best friend.

Anthony Albanese confirmed the 19-year-old’s death on Thursday, after her parents travelled to Thailand to be with her.

“Our first thoughts at this moment are with her family and friends who are
grieving a terrible and cruel loss,” the prime minister told parliament.

The Jones family told the Herald Sun she was “surrounded by love”.

“It is with the heaviest of hearts that we share the news that our beloved daughter and sister, Bianca Jones, has passed away,” the statement said.

“She was surrounded by love, and we are comforted by the knowledge that her incredible spirit touched so many lives during her time with us.

“We want to express our deepest gratitude for the overwhelming support, love, and prayers we’ve received from across Australia.

“The kindness shown to our family during this unimaginable time has been truly humbling.”

Jones and her best friend, Holly Bowles, both aged 19, had been staying at a hostel in Vang Vieng, north of the Laos capital Vientiane, while on a “dream getaway” when they fell critically ill.

Bowles remains fighting for her life in a Thai hospital.

The foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, said drink spiking and methanol poisoning were “far too common” in many parts of the world.

“I would say to parents, to young people, please have a conversation about risks, please inform yourselves. Please, let’s work together to ensure this tragedy doesn’t happen again,” she said.

Federal MP Zoe Daniels, whose electorate of Goldstein takes in Beaumaris, said Jones’s parents and brother were “suffering pain beyond measure”.

“I offer my sympathy and strength to Bianca’s family and to Holly’s parents Shaun and Samantha who remain at her bedside in Bangkok,” she said in a statement.

“I send the families of both these girls love and strength along with people all over the country who have been thinking of these two young Aussie girls who simply headed off together on a life adventure.”

On Thursday, a US Department of State spokesperson also confirmed an American had died in the town – just days after Danish authorities said two of its citizens had died in Laos.

“We are closely monitoring the situation and providing consular assistance,” the US state department spokesperson said in a statement.

The spokesperson did not link the death to methanol, and said local authorities were “responsible for determining the cause of death”.

While confirming two deaths in Laos, Denmark’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not link them to methanol.

Earlier on Thursday, the Victorian premier, Jacinta Allan, said her thoughts were with the families of Bowles and Jones.

“This is just heartbreaking to have your beautiful, young adults head off on an exciting adventure,” Allan told reporters on Thursday morning.

“For that exciting adventure to end in these awful, tragic circumstances is really heartbreaking for the families and obviously too for the many people in our community who love these two young women.”

Jones’s parents on Wednesday said they hoped authorities worked out exactly what happened “as soon as possible”.

Jones’s mother is employed by News Corp’s Herald and Weekly Times. Penny Fowler, chair of the HWT, told staff on Tuesday that the teenagers had fallen victim “to an apparent case of methanol poisoning”.

The location of the suspected poisoning has not been confirmed by authorities.

The pair had played Australian rules football together at the Beaumaris football club, which on Wednesday extended its “love, best wishes and unconditional support to Holly and Bianca in their hour of need”.

Australia’s Smartraveller website urges tourists to be on the lookout for methanol poisoning, saying as little as one shot can be fatal.

It warns symptoms appear similar to drinking too much but can be “stronger”, leading to vision problems including blindness or death.

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British 18-year-old arrested in Dubai for sex with 17-year-old | Dubai

An 18-year-old man from London could be jailed in the United Arab Emirates after having sex with a 17-year-old girl.

Marcus Fakana, from Tottenham, was on a family holiday in Dubai when he met the British girl, who is also from London and has since turned 18.

He told the Detained in Dubai group: “We really liked each other but she was secretive with her family because they were strict.

“My parents knew about our relationship but she couldn’t tell hers. She had to meet me without telling them it was to see a boy.”

The pair had hoped to continue their relationship back in London after the girl returned home from her holiday. But Fakana said he was taken into custody without any explanation after police turned up at his family’s hotel.

He was detained for three days, Sky News reported, and was unable to contact his parents.

Detained in Dubai, which campaigns to help people it says have suffered injustice in the UAE, said Fakana was charged because the girl’s mother found their chats and pictures back in the UK.

It is understood the woman subsequently contacted police in Dubai and Fakana was arrested.

Campaigners say the teenager could face up to two decades in prison owing to the country’s strict laws regarding sex outside marriage.

“Dubai has only recently legalised out-of-wedlock sex for tourists but still hosts a strict Islamic legal system,” said Radha Stirling, the chief executive of Detained in Dubai. Sex outside marriage is legal for tourists, but only if both parties are over 18.

“The girl was just a few months younger than Marcus and he didn’t know that at the time,” said Stirling. “Since his arrest, she has turned 18.

“This is not something Dubai should be prosecuting.”

In the UK, their relationship would not be illegal. Fakana’s family has called on the foreign secretary, David Lammy – their local MP – to intervene.

Fakana is no longer being held in a police cell but is unable to leave the country, with his family facing bills of £2,000 for Airbnb accommodation until his case is resolved.

He told Detained in Dubai: “[My family] saved up for this one-off holiday and have now used all of their savings.”

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Australia hoped hosting a Cop climate summit was a done deal. But one nation still stands in the way | Cop29

Australia’s plan to host a major UN climate summit in 2026 has hit a Turkish roadblock. It is unclear how long it will last.

The Albanese government had expected that its bid to co-host the Cop31 summit in partnership with Pacific island nations – a Labor promise since before it won power in 2022 – would be agreed by now, as the UN climate talks in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku approach their final stages.

A decision this week would give Australia and its island partners two years to prepare for what is a huge undertaking, hosting tens of thousands of people and leading the negotiations between nearly 200 countries over what should be done to combat and survive the greatest threat facing people and the planet.

The bid for what its backers call “the Pacific Cop” has the support of nearly all of a group of 29 largely western European countries that are responsible for the decision this year (hosting rights are shared between five country groups on a rotational basis). Eleven – including the UK, Germany, France, the US and Canada – have expressed their backing publicly, while it is understood 12 have offered private support.

But decision-making at the UN works by consensus. And Turkey – the only other country vying to host Cop31 – is resisting pressure for it to leave the race.

The annual Cops – short for “Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change” – are the major event on the climate diplomacy calendar, with negotiations between government officials running alongside a massive trade fair for green industries.

It is a frustrating and flawed process, but its supporters say the Cop system has led to progress amid its stumbles – most notably the landmark 2015 Paris agreement, which helped boost green energy investment. Climate activist and business organisations believe hosting a local Cop could have a similar galvanising effect in fossil fuel-reliant Australia.

There had been an expectation from some Australians earlier this year that the Cop31 rights was close to a done deal. But in the lead-up to Cop29 in Baku it became apparent that Turkey wasn’t planning to step aside.

It prompted the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, to detour via Ankara on the way to Baku to meet with the Turkish minister, Murat Kurum, in an attempt to land a deal. It was the fifth meeting between Bowen and his Turkish counterparts on the issue. Australia offered Turkey a role at Cop31 leading events on buildings resilience, recognising its recovery from the twin earthquakes that killed 55,000 in its country and Syria in February last year.

But Turkey declined, and did not make a counter offer or request. Kurum later posted on X that his government had emphasised to Bowen it remained determined to host the summit, and was well placed because it had an “ability to create a link between developed and developing countries” and was logistically ready.

A few days later Anthony Albanese raised the issue in a meeting with the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Brazil. Turkish media reported that Erdoğan reinforced that his country would not withdraw its candidacy.

Other reports quoted Turkish representatives suggesting it should win the hosting rights because, unlike its rival, it was not a major fossil fuel exporter – and that Australia would be going into a period of uncertainty as it is due to hold a federal election by next May.

Australian and Pacific ministers have increasingly pushed back, saying there was rising concern that if the issue isn’t resolved this week it would delay preparations for what is seen as an important event.

Bowen told the Guardian he was respectful of the Turkish bid but “clarity would be good for everyone involved – us, Turkey and all the parties, particularly our Pacific colleagues, who are very excited about the opportunities”.

Asked about Turkey referencing Australia’s coal and gas trade – it is the third-largest dirty fuel exporter, and continues to approve expansions – the minister said he would not comment on Turkey’s fossil fuel use, pointed to his government’s ambition to be a “renewable energy superpower” and argued: “Of the 29 Cops, six have been held in the southern hemisphere, 23 in the northern hemisphere. It’s time.”

Other supporters of the Australia-Pacific bid have pointed out Turkey’s contribution to climate pollution, including its role selling “camouflaged” Russian oil to the European Union in a relationship that helped Moscow bypass sanctions after it invaded Ukraine.

The Turkish delegation at Cop31 refused an interview request from the Guardian, and declined during an interview with Reuters to name members of the Western European and Others regional group of countries that were supporting it.

Pacific leaders, who are not members of the Western European and Others Group, have become more vocal in their support of the joint bid even while some government representatives from the region urged Australia to make a more rapid shift away from fossil fuel.

The president of Palau, Surangel Whipps Jr, used his national address to the plenary at Cop29 to say “very much hoped” the Australia-Pacific would be declared the successful bid before delegates left Baku this weekend. He said “those involved in this decision” should “not deny the Pacific this rare opportunity to help host what is the most important international forum for our future”.

Bowen has taken a similar tone. Giving Australia’s national statement on Tuesday, he framed the case around the Pacific perspective, saying the climate crisis was “not seen as a subject for negotiation, but an existential and security threat” and that “this is a message that the world needs to hear, and a reality that the world needs to see”.

There are only a few planned days of Cop29 left, though it is almost certain to run into overtime. After that, a deal could still be landed and formally confirmed at a smaller UN climate meeting during next year.

Failing that, the decision could hang in the balance until November next year, when climate delegates gather again – in Belém, a Brazilian city on the Amazon River, for Cop30.

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Texas offers thousands of acres to Trump for ‘deportation facilities’ | Texas

The state of Texas has offered thousands of acres of land to Donald Trump “to construct deportation facilities”.

The Texas land commissioner, Dawn Buckingham, wrote in a letter to Trump that her “office is fully prepared to enter into an agreement with the Department of Homeland Security, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or the US border patrol to allow a facility to be built for the processing, detention, and coordination of the largest deportation of violent criminals in the nation’s history”.

In October, Buckingham’s office, the Texas general land office (GLO), purchased 355,000 acres of land – equivalent to half the size of Rhode Island. Of this, 1,402 acres has been offered to the federal government.

The land sits on a ranch in Starr county in the Rio Grande Valley on the US-Mexico border.

Terms of the purchase were not disclosed, but Buckingham writes in her letter that the land was purchased from a woman who previously refused to let state officials build a border wall on her property. Now, the state plans to build 1.5 miles of the border wall where they were once denied.

The rest of the 353, 598 acres, collectively known as “Brewster Ranch”, located near Big Bend national park, were purchased in October for roughly $245m from the billionaire and tobacco tycoon Brad Kelley, the state’s largest private landowner. It was one of the most significant public purchases of land in the history of Texas.

Such an offer to Trump comes in the wake of a campaign in which he promised immigration crackdowns. Trump confirmed on Monday that he plans to declare a national emergency and activate the US military to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants.

The president-elect has also appointed the former Ice director Tom Homan as his border czar, who has vowed to carry out “the biggest deportation this country has ever seen”.

“They ain’t seen shit yet. Wait until 2025,” the Heritage Foundation fellow and Project 2025 contributor said before his official appointment.

When questioned about policies in the previous Trump administration that led to family separation in an interview for CBS’s 60 Minutes, Homan said there was a simple solution: “Families can be deported together.”

Buckingham said she was “committed to using every available means at my disposal to gain complete operational security of our border”.

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Trans congresswoman Sarah McBride responds to Capitol Hill bathroom ban | House of Representatives

Sarah McBride, the incoming congresswoman and first openly transgender person elected to the US House of Representatives, on Wednesday shared a statement on social media in response to the House banning trans people from using single-sex bathrooms on Capitol Hill that match their gender identity.

Earlier in the day, the House speaker, Louisiana Republican Mike Johnson, issued a statement “regarding facilities throughout the US Capitol complex”.

Johnson said: “All single-sex facilities in the Capitol and House Office Buildings – such as restrooms, changing rooms, and locker rooms – are reserved for individuals of that biological sex.”

He added: “It is important to note that each member office has its own private restroom, and unisex restrooms are available throughout the Capitol. Women deserve women’s only spaces.”

McBride is due to be sworn in in January to represent Delaware after handily winning the seat in the election earlier this month, having been the first openly trans person elected to the state senate seat there in 2020.

She had initially pushed back over proposed restrictions by saying the argument was a far-right-driven distraction from issues such as housing, healthcare and childcare.

But on Wednesday, after Johnson’s announcement, McBride responded with a post on X: “I’m not here to fight about bathrooms, I’m here to fight for Delawareans and to bring down costs facing families. Like all members, I will follow the rules as outlined by Speaker Johnson, even if I disagree with them … serving in the 119th Congress will be the honor of a lifetime, and I continue to look forward to getting to know my future colleagues on both sides of the aisle.”

On Monday Nancy Mace, the South Carolina Republican representative, had introduced a bill to ban transgender people, including congressional members, officers and employees, from using single-sex bathrooms and other facilities on Capitol Hill that correspond to their gender identity.

Mace told reporters that McBride “does not belong in women’s spaces, women’s bathrooms, locker rooms, changing rooms, period, full stop” and called her a biological man, insisting that McBride “doesn’t get a say”, CNN reported.

Mace’s bill comes as Republicans have attacked transgender people as part of a broader political culture-war strategy, limiting what bathrooms they can use and the youth sports teams they can play on. Fourteen states currently have laws that prohibit transgender people from using the bathroom that corresponds with their gender identity, according to the Human Rights Campaign, an LGBTQ+ rights group.

Donald Trump leaned into such politics vigorously during the presidential election campaign.

This article was amended on 20 November 2024 to remove a reference in the subheading and main text to a Bluesky post that had been attributed to Sarah McBride. A representative for McBride later said the account is not affiliated with the congresswoman-elect.

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Thousands eager to escape Trump keen to snap up €1 Sardinian home, says mayor | Italy

The mayor of a small town in Sardinia has said thousands of Americans keen to escape Donald Trump have expressed an interest in moving there after he offered homes to them for as little as €1.

Francesco Columbu, the mayor of Ollolai, has staged similarly enticing initiatives in the past as a way to combat depopulation. He released more homes for sale after sensing he was on to a winner when Trump clinched a second term as US president in elections earlier this month.

On Tuesday, Columbu launched a website mainly targeted at disgruntled Americans, inviting them to start planning their “European escape in the splendid paradise of Sardinia”.

Colombu said: “Within a day, we had 30,000 requests [from would-be residents] and over 156,000 visitors to the site.” . He said the objective was not to interfere in US political issues but to create investment and jobs in Ollolai, a town in the mountainous Barbagia region of the Italian island with a population of roughly 1,150.

The project is open to other nationalities too, although US applications would be fast-tracked, he added.

Ollolai claims to be the “birthplace of the global €1 homes phenomenon”, having first offered dilapidated homes for sale in 2018. The scheme attracted a flurry of buyers who then spent thousands on doing the properties up, but rarely do the owners take up year-round residency.

A project to lure digital nomads called Work from Ollolai has been more successful in that respect, with 10 American professionals moving to the village last year and paying just €1 a month in rent. Americans were also picked on that occasion because of the village being the birthplace of a former Mr Universe who was a close friend of Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Columbu is hoping that the latest plea for new residents will attract more people able to work remotely. As part of the deal, Ollolai will offer three types of accommodation: free homes to certain categories of digital nomads, €1 properties in need of renovations and habitable ones for up to €100,000 (£83,230).

A team of experts would be on hand to help guide people through the process of buying a property, dealing with paperwork or finding contractors for renovation works.

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“The whole point is to revitalise the town and improve the life of inhabitants,” Columbu said. “We are a population of mostly elderly people in a town which is depopulating and we need to invest in our future. We can’t resolve the issue with these initiatives, but at least we are creating a bit of activity.”

Surrounded by nature and blessed with plenty of sunshine, Columbu said any new resident to Ollolai “would want for nothing”. What’s more, the village is part of an area in Sardinia designated a “blue zone” – one of five regions of the world where people live much longer than average.

On top of that, Columbu said the village boasts great culture and delicious food. He joked that if Trump wanted to invest in the village, he would be welcome, although that might defeat the object of his plan.

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Laken Riley murder: man convicted in killing of Georgia nursing student | Georgia

A Venezuelan man has been convicted of murder in the killing of the Georgia nursing student Laken Riley, a case that fueled the national debate over US immigration during this year’s presidential race.

José Ibarra was charged with murder and other crimes in Riley’s February death, and the guilty verdict was reached on Wednesday by the Athens-Clarke county superior court Judge H Patrick Haggard. Ibarra, 26, had waived his right to a jury trial, meaning that Haggard alone heard and decided the case.

Riley’s family and roommates cried as the verdict was read. Ibarra did not visibly react.

The killing added fuel to the national debate over immigration when federal authorities said Ibarra illegally entered the US in 2022 and was allowed to stay in the country while he pursued his immigration case.

The trial began last Friday, and prosecutors called more than a dozen law enforcement officers, Riley’s roommates and a woman who lived in the same apartment as Ibarra. Defense attorneys called a police officer, a jogger and one of Ibarra’s neighbors on Tuesday and rested their case on Wednesday morning.

Prosecutor Sheila Ross told the judge that Ibarra encountered Riley while she was running on the University of Georgia campus on 22 February and killed her during a struggle. Riley, 22, was a student at Augusta University College of Nursing, which also has a campus in Athens, about 70 miles (113km) east of Atlanta.

Defense attorney Dustin Kirby said in his opening that Riley’s death was a tragedy and called the evidence in the case graphic and disturbing. But he said there was not sufficient evidence to prove that his client killed Riley.

Riley’s parents, roommates and other friends and family packed the courtroom throughout the trial.

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