Average incomes will fall by almost a fifth within the next 26 years as a result of the climate crisis, according to a study that predicts the costs of damage will be six times higher than the price of limiting global heating to 2C.

Rising temperatures, heavier rainfall and more frequent and intense extreme weather are projected to cause $38tn (£30tn) of destruction each year by mid-century, according to the research, which is the most comprehensive analysis of its type ever undertaken, and whose findings are published in the journal Nature.

The hefty toll – which is far higher than previous estimates – is already locked into the world economy over the coming decades as a result of the enormous emissions that have been pumped into the atmosphere through the burning of gas, oil, coal and trees.

This will inflict crippling losses on almost every country, with a disproportionately severe impact on those least responsible for climate disruption, further worsening inequality.

The paper says the permanent average loss of income worldwide will be 19% by 2049. In the United States and Europe the reduction will be about 11%, while in Africa and south Asia it will be 22%, with some individual countries much higher than this.

“It’s devastating,” said Leonie Wenz, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and one of the authors of the study. “I am used to my work not having a nice societal outcome, but I was surprised by how big the damages were. The inequality dimension was really shocking.”

The study also looked at the second half of this century, where human actions now can still make a big difference. If business as usual continues, the authors projected average income losses of more than 60% by 2100. But if emissions fall to net zero by mid century, income declines will stabilise by mid century at about 20%.

The economic hit predicted by the paper is more than twice as high as any previous analysis.

Behind that difference is a more sophisticated methodology. While most previous studies considered only damages related to rising temperatures at a national level, the new paper also incorporated rainfall and extreme weather impacts using 40 years of data from 1,600 subnational regions. This is important because weather is a local rather than national phenomenon. The study also considered how impacts tend to persist over months and years, rather than being only a short-term hit.

Previous projections were optimistic that most northern hemisphere economies would continue to grow. By contrast, the new paper says countries such as Germany (-11%), France (-13%), the US (-11%) and UK (-7%) will lose out even by mid century. Worst affected will be countries in already hot regions including Botswana (-25%), Mali (-25%), Iraq (-30%), Qatar (-31%), Pakistan (-26%) and Brazil (-21%).

Maximilian Kotz, an author of the study, said: “Strong income reductions are projected for the majority of regions, including North America and Europe, with south Asia and Africa being most strongly affected. These are caused by the impact of climate change on various aspects that are relevant for economic growth such as agricultural yields, labour productivity or infrastructure.”

Although the newly painted scenario is far worse than anything that came before, the authors acknowledge it is still conservative and incomplete. There are many major climate impacts that have not yet been incorporated into the analysis, including heatwaves, sea level rise, tropical cyclones, tipping points, and damage to natural ecosystems and human health. The authors said these factors would be added to future models.

“We are providing a more comprehensive picture but this is not the final picture,” Wenz said. “It is likely a lower bound.”

The authors said the study showed the need for stronger adaptation strategies, particularly in poorer, worst-affected countries, to cope with the changes up to 2050 that are already locked into the climate system.

It also found that reducing emissions was far cheaper than doing nothing and accepting more severe impacts. By 2050, it calculated mitigation costs – for example, from phasing out fossils and replacing them with renewable energy – to be $6tn dollars, which is less than a sixth of the median damage costs for that year of $38tn.

Anders Levermann, the head of complexity science at the Potsdam Institute, said: “It is on us to decide: structural change towards a renewable energy system is needed for our security and will save us money. Staying on the path we are currently on will lead to catastrophic consequences. The temperature of the planet can only be stabilised if we stop burning oil, gas and coal.”

Last week, gun-wielding conservation officers stuffed a 500-lb elephant seal in the back of a van, drove him along a winding highway in western Canada and left him on a remote beach “far from human habitation”.

The plan was to move the young seal far from British Columbia’s capital city, where over the last year, he has developed a reputation for ending up in “unusual locations”, including flower beds, city parks and busy roads.

Emerson, as he is known to locals, had other plans.

Less than a week after he was removed from Victoria, he made an “epic” 126-mile trek along the rugged west coast of Vancouver Island back to the city, a return that has left conservation officers in disbelief.

But Emerson’s presence and growing popularity has alarmed those same officers, as the public takes increasingly risky behaviour around the animal, including one group who encouraged a child to pet his nose.

Born in Washington state in 2022, the young pup was cared for by a group of volunteers after his mother left. Last year, he began popping up on beaches around Victoria and has since taken on near-celebrity status. When word spreads that he has been spotted lounging in the sun or sleeping between parked cars, crowds quickly gather with their cameras drawn.

“I’ve been coming down every day to see him for a month – big, old, fat thing,” Peggy McCann told local media last year. “Everybody else here also started watching him. I just think it was marvelous. It’s so nice to see this.”

Northern elephant seals spend most of their lives in the water but they come ashore to breed and moult. Emerson is currently doing the latter, undergoing a month-long biological process where he sheds all of his fur and underlying layer of skin that is “highly taxing” on the seal, said Canada’s department of fisheries and oceans.

On 1 April, he was spotted moulting in a busy park, prompting conservation officers to cordon off the area in yellow caution tape and post a sign warning the public to stay back – a request that was ignored.

Five days later, he was moved out of the city to better let him to moult “in peace”, the department said.

But his return – and apparent lack of interest in people – has created a troubling situation for conservation staff. Although Emerson has so far seemed unmoved by the gawking crowds, reports of harassment have increased to “concerning levels”.

“People have approached Emerson to try and pet him, take selfies with him, and on occasion prompted their small children to do the same,” the department said. “If public disturbances of the elephant seal continue, someone will get hurt.”

Conservation staff say they will probably be forced to move the young pinniped again.

“However, it would be ideal if this could be avoided to allow Emerson his space to complete his moulting process in the location he has chosen.”